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Today's Market Fundamentals
The market eagerly waited on two things on Friday, firstly the US Non-Farm Payroll data read and secondly the US-Mexico trade talks. There is no other way to describe the jobs data except that it was a shocker, earlier in the week the Fed suggested that the only weak data was keeping the committee from cutting rates – well that this the worst jobs report since 2012 and the market will begin to price in this interest rate.
The second big feature for event risk was a little tougher and went down to the wire with tariff increases on Mexico set to increase this morning. Donald Trump tweeted on Saturday evening though that a deal on “migration had been struck with Mexico and that tariffs were indefinitely suspended.” I will be watching the oil markets this morning that Saudi Arabia suggested that they would be willing to let Russia within OPEC to allow output to remain stable – I am undecided as to how the US are going to respond this.
For this morning then, I would expect that the equity indices will have a cracking day. At least until the euphoria of a trade deal dissipates and the realization that a recession could be around the corner comes front of mind again. The dollar should be weaker on the back of increased probability of a rate cut.
Today's Market Trading Levels
1. EURGBP SELL 8900 – 8920
2. GBPCAD BUY 1.6865 – 1.6850
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