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29 December 2016 – Dean Forex Market Commentary

29 Dec
Forex Market Preview

29 December 2016 – Dean Forex Market Commentary

The only remotely bit of economic data we had on the agenda yesterday was the US Pending home sales, and it was an absolute shocker. I suppose this should have been expected, but to many in the market this could be seen as validation as to what we can expect in 2017 and may be more telling than a wishy-washy Fed Chair Yellen. The “Trump Rally” is on the back of expected growth, which will come with increased interest rates – and this obviously means softer home sales.

Dean’s Daily FX Update – 29 December 2016

 

In the Zone

  • GBPUSD
  • USDCAD
  • AUDUSD

Recap

The EURUSD seemed to be languishing lower until the data was released and the EUR managed to rebound from a low of 1.0370 all the way to 1.0400. This morning the pair has managed to get up to 1.0460 and this level will be eyed keenly by traders, we still have the 200 hour MA loitering around 1.0430 and then we have a major hurdle discussed last week at 1.0465. If price is not able to close above these levels today then it will be confirmation for me that the sellers still hold the upper hand.

The GBPUSD has still not been able to trade higher than the 100 hour MA at 1.2284 since the FOMC, and it is no surprise that we are eyeing that level to define our next major move. While we are able to bounce off that 1.2200 level for now, the rally will have little relevance if we can’t get ahead of that 100 hour MA.

Finally the JPY is putting up a fight, yesterday it traded down to its lowest level in more than a week. Resistance at 118.50 last week was where sellers were leaning and it seems as though the sellers have wrestled back the initiative, the main resistance level where sellers are leaning is now at around 117.50. As in the other pairs, the USDJPY is trading at a key support level this morning, 116.50 may be the last frontier in the form of support – we are teetering at this level and a break and close below may open up for the correction we have been waiting for.

The AUDUSD has a major hurdle to clear at 0.7200, it is clearly trying to push higher and the buyers will want to see a close above that level before we get the next move and for the bias to turn bullish.

Daily Ranges 29/12/2016

Majors

EURUSD

Resistance                                        1.0460 – 1.0480

Support                                             1.0405 – 1.0400

GBPUSD

Resistance                                        1.2266 – 1.2288

Support                                             1.2210 – 1.2200

AUDUSD

Resistance                                        0.7207 – 0.7225

Support                                             0.7167 – 0.7150

NZDUSD

Resistance                                        0.6935 – 0.6960

Support                                             0.6900 – 0.6890

USDCAD

Resistance                                        1.3565 – 1.3580

Support                                             1.3530 – 1.3512

USDJPY

Resistance                                        117.40 – 117.60

Support                                             116.54 – 116.15

USDCHF

Resistance                                        1.0296 – 1.0305

Support                                             1.0255 – 1.0245

Rand

USDZAR

Resistance                                        13.9190 – 13.9600

Support                                             13.7500 – 13.6890

EURZAR

Resistance                                        14.5130 – 14.5396

Support                                             14.3900 – 14.3405

GBPZAR

Resistance                                        17.0239 – 17.0640

Support                                             16.8490 – 16.7922

Minors

AUDCAD

Resistance                                        0.9758 – 0.9765

Support                                             0.9720 – 0.9703

AUDJPY

Resistance                                        84.52 – 84.63

Support                                             84.02 – 83.93

EURCHF

Resistance                                        1.0725 – 1.0740

Support                                             1.0710 – 1.0700

EURGBP

Resistance                                        0.8542 – 0.8550

Support                                             0.8500 – 0.8480

EURJPY

Resistance                                        122.58 – 122.69

Support                                             121.90 – 121.62

GBPJPY

Resistance                                        143.81 – 144.00

Support                                             142.35 – 142.00

GBPCAD

Resistance                                        1.6617 – 1.6630

Support                                             1.6538 – 1.6500

GBPCHF

Resistance                                        1.2605 – 1.2617

Support                                             1.2559 – 1.2542

CADCHF

Resistance                                        0.7595 – 0.7605

Support                                             0.7567 – 0.7560

Indices

DE30

Resistance                                        11473 – 11500

Support                                             11378 – 11352

UK100

Resistance                                        7089 – 7100

Support                                             7033 – 7026

US500

Resistance                                        2270 – 2300

Support                                             2240 – 2232

US30

Resistance                                        19900 – 19940

Support                                             19750 – 19700

SA40

Resistance                                        44400 – 44500

Support                                             43500 – 43000

Commodities

BRENT

Resistance                                        56.30 – 56.50

Support                                             55.60 – 55.20

XAUUSD

Resistance                                        1149.00 – 1150.67

Support                                             1138.60 – 1135.20

XAGUSD

Resistance                                        16.07 – 16.13

Support                                             15.80 – 15.63

Important Economic Data out today

  • 15:30                    USD                      Unemployment Claims
  • 18:00                    USD                      Crude Oil Inventories

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