The only remotely bit of economic data we had on the agenda yesterday was the US Pending home sales, and it was an absolute shocker. I suppose this should have been expected, but to many in the market this could be seen as validation as to what we can expect in 2017 and may be more telling than a wishy-washy Fed Chair Yellen. The “Trump Rally” is on the back of expected growth, which will come with increased interest rates – and this obviously means softer home sales.
Dean's Daily FX Update – 29 December 2016
In the Zone
- GBPUSD
- USDCAD
- AUDUSD
Recap
The EURUSD seemed to be languishing lower until the data was released and the EUR managed to rebound from a low of 1.0370 all the way to 1.0400. This morning the pair has managed to get up to 1.0460 and this level will be eyed keenly by traders, we still have the 200 hour MA loitering around 1.0430 and then we have a major hurdle discussed last week at 1.0465. If price is not able to close above these levels today then it will be confirmation for me that the sellers still hold the upper hand.
The GBPUSD has still not been able to trade higher than the 100 hour MA at 1.2284 since the FOMC, and it is no surprise that we are eyeing that level to define our next major move. While we are able to bounce off that 1.2200 level for now, the rally will have little relevance if we can’t get ahead of that 100 hour MA.
Finally the JPY is putting up a fight, yesterday it traded down to its lowest level in more than a week. Resistance at 118.50 last week was where sellers were leaning and it seems as though the sellers have wrestled back the initiative, the main resistance level where sellers are leaning is now at around 117.50. As in the other pairs, the USDJPY is trading at a key support level this morning, 116.50 may be the last frontier in the form of support – we are teetering at this level and a break and close below may open up for the correction we have been waiting for.
The AUDUSD has a major hurdle to clear at 0.7200, it is clearly trying to push higher and the buyers will want to see a close above that level before we get the next move and for the bias to turn bullish.
Daily Ranges 29/12/2016
Majors
EURUSD
Resistance 1.0460 – 1.0480
Support 1.0405 – 1.0400
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2266 – 1.2288
Support 1.2210 – 1.2200
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7207 – 0.7225
Support 0.7167 – 0.7150
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.6935 – 0.6960
Support 0.6900 – 0.6890
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3565 – 1.3580
Support 1.3530 – 1.3512
USDJPY
Resistance 117.40 – 117.60
Support 116.54 – 116.15
USDCHF
Resistance 1.0296 – 1.0305
Support 1.0255 – 1.0245
Rand
USDZAR
Resistance 13.9190 – 13.9600
Support 13.7500 – 13.6890
EURZAR
Resistance 14.5130 – 14.5396
Support 14.3900 – 14.3405
GBPZAR
Resistance 17.0239 – 17.0640
Support 16.8490 – 16.7922
Minors
AUDCAD
Resistance 0.9758 – 0.9765
Support 0.9720 – 0.9703
AUDJPY
Resistance 84.52 – 84.63
Support 84.02 – 83.93
EURCHF
Resistance 1.0725 – 1.0740
Support 1.0710 – 1.0700
EURGBP
Resistance 0.8542 – 0.8550
Support 0.8500 – 0.8480
EURJPY
Resistance 122.58 – 122.69
Support 121.90 – 121.62
GBPJPY
Resistance 143.81 – 144.00
Support 142.35 – 142.00
GBPCAD
Resistance 1.6617 – 1.6630
Support 1.6538 – 1.6500
GBPCHF
Resistance 1.2605 – 1.2617
Support 1.2559 – 1.2542
CADCHF
Resistance 0.7595 – 0.7605
Support 0.7567 – 0.7560
Indices
DE30
Resistance 11473 – 11500
Support 11378 – 11352
UK100
Resistance 7089 – 7100
Support 7033 – 7026
US500
Resistance 2270 – 2300
Support 2240 – 2232
US30
Resistance 19900 – 19940
Support 19750 – 19700
SA40
Resistance 44400 – 44500
Support 43500 – 43000
Commodities
BRENT
Resistance 56.30 – 56.50
Support 55.60 – 55.20
XAUUSD
Resistance 1149.00 – 1150.67
Support 1138.60 – 1135.20
XAGUSD
Resistance 16.07 – 16.13
Support 15.80 – 15.63
Important Economic Data out today
- 15:30 USD Unemployment Claims
- 18:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories
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