Forex Market Insight 19 September 2018

Market Insight Commentary – 19 September 2018

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In the Zone

  • GBPJPY
  • US30
  • Brent

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Today's News Headlines

  • Trump reiterated that he won’t let China take advantage of the US, by also saying that he is open to a deal at some point means that he has left the door open to China.

Market Recap

The economic calendar was pretty quiet again yesterday, with the main story again the US tariffs on $200B worth of Chinese goods which will go into effect on the 24th September. All eyes will be on what retaliation the Chinese inflict on the US – this really could be the start of a trade war. This kind of news will mean stocks move higher as well as bond yields with commodity currencies enjoying some flows.

The EURUSD moved to 1.1725 yesterday which is the monthly high, there was an inability to move higher though which means this is a natural take profit area for the buyers. The 100 day MA is at 1.1665 with the low trading at 1.1650, this is a tight range for the pair and these levels become the key levels to watch today.

The GPBUSD stalled on three tests of the 100 day MA at 1.3165, I am still of the opinion that this pair is looking a little stretched and would be looking to fade these moves. I will be watching 1.3120 as my key level this morning, a break below that level means that we target 1.3100.

Important Economic Data Due Today

10:30                            GBP                              CPI  

Consensus:                   2.4%

Effect:                          Higher than expected is good for the GBP

15:00                            EUR                              ECB President Draghi Speaks  

Consensus:                   None

Effect:                          More hawkish than expected is good for the EUR

16:30                            USD                              Crude Oil Inventories 

Consensus:                   -2.7M

Effect:                          No consistent effect on the USD

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