After such an uncertain day and broad dollar weakness, the forex market was eagerly waiting on what President Trump would be doing and what executive orders he would be signing – I look forward to the day that we can trade without wondering what Donald Trump is doing. The dollar did stage a broad recovery yesterday, but it was small and was probably more on the better than expected economic data than anything else.
Dean's Daily FX Update – 25 January 2017
In the Zone
- GBPUSD
- NZDUSD
- USDCAD
- USDZAR
Noteworthy News
- Things are heating up in German politics, there has been a lot of criticism towards the governing party. There are many elections around Europe this year and this sort of headline makes me wonder if the rest of the world are starting to “rebel” – ala Brexit and US Election.
Recap
The big news coming into Tuesday was the Brexit Supreme Court decision, the result being that PM May will have to get a Parliamentary vote but won’t need approval from Scotland, Wales and regions. At first the GBPUSD dropped like a lead balloon down to 1.2410 but recovered much of that towards the end the day to close at 1.2500. The court decision puts a spanner in the works as I would not be surprised if Scotland and Northern Ireland staged a referendum to leave the UK. Too much uncertainty for me and I continue to sit this pair out.
The EURUSD continues to fight incredibly hard but that 1.0775 level is just too tough to break at this point and sellers are definitely leaning against it. On the bottom side, our first support trades at 1.0720 and a break below opens up for a test of 1.0630.
The USDJPY had another yo-yo day trading in a wide range 112.60 – 113.90. We discussed this over the weekend and so this was expected – this pair will be most affected by all the headlines and executive orders signed in the US. For those of you that do trade this pair, keep an eye on the US treasury yields to lead you, this pair may have another assault on the 114.00 figure today, sellers will have to keep price lower than that to keep me interested.
The commodity pairs continue to persevere against the USD, the momentum is slowing and I am looking for a pullback in all. The USDCAD is again the anomaly, an executive order to move forward pipelines – such as Keystone XL – was the catalyst for the CAD to strengthen by over 200 pips! Much of this move may be overdone and so I have half an eye on some USD recovery this afternoon.
Daily Ranges 25/01/2017
Majors
EURUSD
Resistance 1.0750 – 1.0775
Support 1.0700 – 1.0670
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2560 – 1.2580
Support 1.2430 – 1.2400
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7580 – 0.7600
Support 0.7530 – 0.7510
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.7260 – 0.7270
Support 0.7200 – 0.7180
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3240 – 1.3260
Support 1.3130 – 1.3100
USDJPY
Resistance 113.90 – 114.10
Support 112.80 – 112.50
USDCHF
Resistance 1.0020 – 1.0030
Support 0.9960 – 0.9945
Rand
USDZAR
Resistance 13.4562 – 13.4880
Support 13.3100 – 13.2750
EURZAR
Resistance 14.4500 – 14.4800
Support 14.3050 – 14.2620
GBPZAR
Resistance 16.8450 – 16.8660
Support 16.6000 – 16.5130
Minors
AUDCAD
Resistance 1.0008 – 1.0020
Support 0.9892 – 0.9865
AUDJPY
Resistance 86.05 – 86.40
Support 85.50 – 85.30
EURCHF
Resistance 1.0740 – 1.0770
Support 1.0710 – 1.0700
EURGBP
Resistance 0.8640 – 0.8660
Support 0.8550 – 0.8540
EURJPY
Resistance 122.07 – 122.25
Support 121.40 – 121.20
GBPJPY
Resistance 142.26 – 142.50
Support 140.70 – 140.00
GBPCAD
Resistance 1.6530 – 1.6560
Support 1.6440 – 1.6420
GBPCHF
Resistance 1.2520 – 1.2560
Support 1.2440 – 1.2420
Indices
DE30
Resistance 11600 – 11620
Support 11550 – 11530
UK100
Resistance 7210 – 7230
Support 7140 – 7100
US500
Resistance 2270 – 2300
Support 2260 – 2220
US30
Resistance 19900 – 20000
Support 19700 – 19600
SA40
Resistance 46800 – 47000
Support 46000 – 45800
Commodities
BRENT
Resistance 55.60 – 55.80
Support 54.40 – 54.00
XAUUSD
Resistance 1212.09 – 1220.00
Support 1195.00 – 1190.20
XAGUSD
Resistance 17.15 – 17.30
Support 16.90 – 16.80
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