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The major focus today was the House of Representatives passing of their tax reform bill, this was largely expected. This means that the Senate vote will tax place after Thanksgiving weekend and assuming that it passes here it will go to the committee for final vote, which means that tax reform will be signed into law before Christmas. I am not certain that it will be as smooth as that though, the White House Administration are still to get anything through Congress and I suspect that this will be another tough week for them.
The greenback was somewhat choppy in the New York session yesterday and this was not more evident than in the EURUSD. After initially rejecting highs above 1.1800 the pair raced back lower before finding support for most of the day at 1.1760. This remains the first level of support to break before we find the 100 day MA at 1.1743 – this will be the level to watch this morning. Despite the pop higher in the Asia last night, the sellers will be confident today and will hope that they can break through 1.1743.
The GBPUSD spent most of the week trading between the 100 and 200 hour MA and for most of the day it seemed as though we would get a trade lower. This did not got according to plan though and the price bounced off that 200 hour MA at 1.3130 yesterday and momentum took the pair to 1.3250. This would suggest that the price is more bullish today, my view on cable (as stated yesterday) remains the same – there are too many reasons to sell this pair and so I look for reasons to sell the pair today.
The USDCAD has been another interesting pair to trade this week, the pair traded to as low as 1.2710 this morning but is currently back at 1.2730 which is both the 100 and 200 hour MA – and the 50% fib. The recent high has been 1.2800 and today I am looking to trade this range, a break of either level should mean that price opens its legs a little. My bias today however would be to trade this pair higher.
Market Insight Commentary – Forex
In the Zone
- EURUSD
- GBPUSD
- NZDUSD
- USDCAD
- USDJPY
Market Insight Commentary – Indices
Important Economic Data out today
10:30 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
Consensus: None
Effect: More hawkish than expected is good for the EUR
15:30 CAD CPI
Consensus: 0.1%
Effect: Higher than expected is good for the CAD
15:30 USD Building Permits
Consensus: 1.25M
Effect: Higher than expected is good for the USD
Noteworthy News
- The market was focused on the tax reform bill, but last night we also saw that the investigation into the Russia probe took another twist as senior members of the Trump campaign have been subpoenaed.
