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15 March 2017 – Dean Forex Market Commentary

15 Mar
Forex Market Preview

15 March 2017 – Dean Forex Market Commentary

Did you know: The Forex or FX Market derives its name from Foreign Exchange. It is essentially the exchange of currency (money) between two different countries. The FX market is the largest financial market in the world, and is open 24 hours per day, 5 days per week. Read More – Introduction To The Forex Market

We have a bumper day ahead on the economic calendar, on a normal trading day both the US CPI and Retail Sales release would be huge, but the FOMC interest rate decision this evening will take centre stage. For the most part we should expect an interest rate hike tonight, we have a 94% probability priced in and 80 of 83 economists are calling for a hike. The market will be listening for any clues as to when the next hike will be, my gut says that this evening could be a disappointing day for the dollar bulls, Fed Chair Yellen tries to keep everything flexible and so while she will leave future hikes on the table she will also signal caution.

Dean’s Daily FX Update – 15 March 2017

In the Zone

  • GBPUSD
  • NZDUSD
  • USDCAD

Noteworthy News

  • The French elections are starting to turn ugly again, with Fillon now under investigation for diversion of public funds. This election continues to get tainted with scandal, the EU really needed a clean election in France this year and this type of election could put the EUR under pressure.

Recap

The dollar was largely stronger against the major pairs last night, albeit in very tight ranges. The EUR and GBP are at most risk of volatility this week, we have the impending Brexit finalization and triggering of Article 50 in cable. In the EUR we will have the impending Brexit, but also we have elections in the Netherlands and French elections on the horizon to factor in.

The EURUSD did find resistance yesterday evening and closed around the big figure of 1.0600, we were looking for price to launch an attack on the 100 bar MA at 1.0580 and I suspect the bears may give it another bash this morning. Leading into the FOMC this evening the buyers will be desperate to see price move above 1.0650, if it fails however, the sellers will quickly target 1.0500.

The USDJPY is trading at 115.10, which is precisely the middle of the 2017 range. The buyers have been trying to break above this level but have thus far failed. The nearest support comes in at 114.40 and this has confluence with the 200 hour MA, the sellers will need to have a close below that level if it wants to have another attempt at the lower levels at 112.00.

The AUDUSD found support at 0.7540 yesterday which was the 100 hour MA, there are plenty of levels for the buyers to lean against with both 0.7535 and 0.7515 providing significant support levels. The buyers will not be comfortable until price closes above 0.7585 though and I so I will be monitoring that levels closely.

We cover the rest of the pairs in the morning video, for me it seems as though the pairs are bracing themselves to be disappointed and possibly to strengthen against the dollar this evening.

Daily Ranges 15/03/2017

Majors

EURUSD

Resistance                                          1.0660 – 1.0700

Support                                                1.0610 – 1.0590

GBPUSD

Resistance                                          1.2180 – 1.2200

Support                                                1.2120 – 1.2100

AUDUSD

Resistance                                          0.7580 – 0.7600

Support                                                0.7530 – 0.7510

NZDUSD

Resistance                                          0.6930 – 0.6950

Support                                                0.6880 – 0.6860

USDCAD

Resistance                                          1.3480 – 1.3500

Support                                                1.3420 – 1.3400

USDJPY

Resistance                                          115.10 – 115.20

Support                                                114.50 – 114.30

USDCHF

Resistance                                          1.0110 – 1.0120

Support                                                1.0070 – 1.0050

Rand

USDZAR

Resistance                                          13.2080 – 13.2300

Support                                                13.0940 – 13.0690           

EURZAR

Resistance                                          14.0460 – 14.0830

Support                                                13.9220 – 13.9030

GBPZAR

Resistance                                          16.0670 – 16.1070

Support                                                15.9300 – 15.9020

Minors

AUDCAD

Resistance                                          1.0196 – 1.0200

Support                                                1.0140 – 1.0130

AUDJPY

Resistance                                          87.00 – 87.30

Support                                                86.60 – 86.40

EURCHF

Resistance                                          1.0780 – 1.0800

Support                                                1.0690 – 1.0670

EURGBP

Resistance                                          0.8760 – 0.8780

Support                                                0.8720 – 0.8700

EURJPY

Resistance                                          122.70 – 122.90

Support                                                121.70 – 121.50

GBPJPY

Resistance                                          140.00 – 140.20

Support                                                139.20 – 139.00

GBPCAD

Resistance                                          1.6440 – 1.6460

Support                                                1.6340 – 1.6320

GBPCHF

Resistance                                          1.2290 – 1.2310

Support                                                1.2250 – 1.2230

Indices

DE30

Resistance                                          12030 – 12050

Support                                                11930 – 11900

UK100

Resistance                                          7370 – 7390

Support                                                7320 – 7310

US500

Resistance                                          2380 – 2400

Support                                                2360 – 2340

US30

Resistance                                          21000 – 21070

Support                                                20880 – 20850

SA40

Resistance                                          44700 – 44800

Support                                                44000 – 43800

Commodities

BRENT

Resistance                                          52.00 – 52.30

Support                                                50.80 – 50.60

XAUUSD

Resistance                                          1210.00 – 1230.00

Support                                                1190.00 – 1180.00

XAGUSD

Resistance                                          17.00 – 17.20

Support                                                16.80 – 16.70

Important Economic Data out today

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