Daily Market Insight

The forex market was choppy yesterday with the stocks the major influencer yesterday being the equity markets. The jobs numbers were strong again yesterday and you would think that this may raise the fear of inflation again but it didn’t for some reason and the equity markets ran. The GBPUSD traded higher on the back of better data yesterday, Brexit concerns will weigh on the pair this afternoon and there could be some market moving headlines. Sterling is trading at the 100 hour MA of 1.3190 which are also key swing levels. This will be the barometer for the bulls and bears today.
It all seems eerily quiet considering the start to the year that we have had, I am not convinced by this risk on notion just yet and am silently wondering if this is merely a bounce after a deep move. I am going to remain cautious ahead of some choppy times. For now though – the dollar is king once again. 
The things to watch for this week are twofold, firstly the escalating concerns arising in Venezuela with the controlling government blocking in any aid from entering the country – this despite people being in need. Secondly, there are reports surfacing that senior White House staff such as Mick Mulvaney and Larry Kudlow are planning exits – reports are they won’t be the last either.
The market continues to be dictated by Brexit with yesterday being no exception, news started surfacing that the DUP were a long way from backing PM May whilst key politicians such as Jacob Ress-Mogg and Duncan Smith softening their stance somewhat which meant that this is still very much in nowhere land.
The EURUSD bounced from 1.1575 to 1.1630 but slowly lagged again, a lot of the EUR weakness was on the back of the Italian government announcing a lot bigger deficit than was expecting. I suspect that a lot of European nations are in the same boat and wouldn’t be surprised if this is a recurring theme in the coming days. I will be watching the USDCAD with much interest today as stories over the weekend emerged that there could be a trilateral deal between the US, Canada and Mexico signed today. I would envision the CAD strengthening off the back of this news before a reversal later in the week.
The markets are starting to become a little monotonous with the same theme rearing its ugly head day after day – data moves the market early on and then trade headlines create the volatility. There is still the optimism around NAFTA agreements affecting the pairs in the New York session, but the potential of trade talks between US and China definitely stole the limelight yesterday.
Friday was started with the BOE talking about poor weather being the reason for a softer Q1, this meant that the GBPUSD was a little bit softer too although there was a little bit of a bonus in store later on during the day. With Brexit very much in the spotlight and reports indicating that there is very much a chance of a no deal, President Trump insisted that there would be a trade deal in the offering after Brexit, this led to PM May becoming more assertive on Brexit and this seemed to appease the market.