Market Insight Commentary – 10 August 2018

Today saw the release of the PPI number in the US which came in somewhat softer than what was expected. The CPI which will be released this morning is arguably the more important set of data, but weak data here will surely leave the market confused as to how the US economy can be at full employment with little inflation. The Fed comments last week pointed towards rates being accommodative last week, but the data coming out suggest that the Fed may decide to go restrictive. The EURUSD fell below its 100 hour MA at 1.1580 yesterday which turned risk back towards bearish sentiment and the pair grinded lower for most of the day. There is a key support level at 1.1506 which is also a double bottom, this will be make or break ending the week as a move lower with mean the lowest trading levels in over a year.

Market Insight Commentary – 19 March 2018

Market Insight Commentary – 23 October 2018

There was nothing on the economic calendar that was any cause for concern yesterday, the Chicago National Activity Index declined a little from last month but it did close above 0.00 which suggests an expansionary economy. Headlines have been the major market movers of late and yesterday was no different as news that the DUP was willing to back an amendment to make the EU’s Irish backstop illegal sent cable tumbling.

Market Insight Commentary – 15 August 2018

The emerging market currencies remained in the spotlight as the contagion from Turkey continued to spread like wildfire. The USDZAR in particular opened the week at 15.3700 on Monday morning before the knee jerk reaction led the pair to strengthen throughout the day. The market is a resilient beast and I wouldn’t be surprised if the market starts focusing elsewhere. There is bound to be either a relief rally today, and I am looking at pairs like the USDZAR for possible opportunity today.

Market Insight Commentary – 04 October 2018

Another day where the market was dominated by fundamental headlines, there was the stronger than expected economic data in the US – which would have led to some excitement amongst dollar traders ahead of the impending NFP read on Friday. The major catalyst was comments from Fed Chair Powell suggesting that the Fed may raise rates past neutral, he has been pretty calculating since taking over from Yellen and yesterday was his first “big” statement. I personally can’t see how the US can raise past neutral without plunging the US into recession.

Market Insight Commentary – 02 May 2018

The EURUSD tumbled yesterday from a high of 1.2085 to 1.1980, that’s a 100 pips on a day that much of Europe was not in the office. The pair is now trading below the 200 day MA at 1.2000 which is also a key support level. The last form of support comes in at 1.1986 and so that is going to be the key level to watch this week, sellers will want to see the pair break below this level to see any momentum build but the bears are very much still in control here.

Market Insight Commentary – 27 February 2018

Market Outlook Commentary – 20 February 2019

It has been a long time since I’ve seen a market wait on something like we are for the US-China trade talks this week, it resumes in Washington on Thursday, the two countries seem to have an amicable relationship and the US equities are definitely pricing in a favourable outcome. Speaking of President Trump, he was at his cryptic best yesterday by commenting that, “he wanted a peaceful resolution with Venezuela, but that all options were still open.”

Market Outlook Commentary – 23 May 2019

The market remains cautious as the US is said to mull over blacklisting another five Chinese surveillance firms as tensions between the world two biggest economies continues. The Chinese have urged the US to provide a fair trading environment for Chinese firms, while this is a valid point – these talks broke down because the Chinese reneged on a agreements and so they have no one to blame but themselves.

Market Insight Commentary – 04 June 2018

The EURUSD was a little choppy on Friday, first the strong US jobs numbers put pressure on the currency and then we saw an even bigger move as the Italian government was sworn into office. There is a real threat that Italy could show the likes of Spain, Portugal and Greece that there is no need for a single zone and the EU could come under threat in the coming years.

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