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Market Insight Commentary – Forex
Today's News Headlines
- Just when you thought that trade wars were done, Mexico issued a statement that they would place reciprocal tariffs on the US – I was under the impression that NAFTA was done and dusted though.
Market Insight Commentary – Indices
Market Recap
May started where April ended, with the dollar on a rampaging bull run. We have discussed the reasons for this rally, but it really has been a strong one in the last couple of weeks. Throw in a FOMC meeting tonight and a NFP data read on Friday and there is every chance that this recent move could be undone – could get interesting tonight.
The EURUSD tumbled yesterday from a high of 1.2085 to 1.1980, that’s a 100 pips on a day that much of Europe was not in the office. The pair is now trading below the 200 day MA at 1.2000 which is also a key support level. The last form of support comes in at 1.1986 and so that is going to be the key level to watch this week, sellers will want to see the pair break below this level to see any momentum build but the bears are very much still in control here.
Cable too bore the brunt of the dollar strength, it may be somewhat exaggerated as a lot of the move yesterday was on the back of weaker PMI numbers yesterday. A modest rebound late last night saw the pair trade to 1.3615 and the next target is the 200 day MA at 1.3530, I would imagine that this pair may hold but the momentum is strong there and the sellers are firmly in the “pound” seats.
Important Economic Data Due Today
10:30 GBP Construction PMI
Consensus: 50.5
Effect: Higher than expected is good for the GBP
14:15 USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
Consensus: 200K
Effect: Higher than expected is good for the USD
16:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
Consensus: 1.0M
Effect: No Consistent effect on the USD
20:00 USD Fed Funds Rate
Consensus: <1.75%
Effect: Higher than expected is good for the USD
20:00 USD FOMC Statement
Consensus: None
Effect: More hawkish than expected is good for the USD
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