In what was already going to be a really quiet week, there was Boxing Day observance in many of the major trading centres yesterday and hence the reduced liquidity. With New Year over a weekend this year, I suspect that the markets will be even quieter this week with most traders only returning to their desk next week. There was a little flow yesterday, I assume that this flow was more trade flow in nature and as discussed last week, this flow can prove to be a little more unpredictable in nature.
Dean's Daily FX Update – 28 December 2016
In the Zone
- GBPUSD
- USDCAD
- AUDUSD
Recap
Yesterday was typical of a day when there are limited centres in the market, EURUSD traded in a 13 pip range, and the GBPUSD traded in a 40 pip range. The USDCAD was the biggest mover of the day and had a 70 pip range, it also traded in an uncorrelated nature to oil prices which was odd. The greenback continued its march higher against most currency pairs with the exception of the EUR where it closed unchanged.
The EURUSD closed last night at around 1.0450, which is above the 200 hour MA which trades at 1.0350. I will be watching 1.0465 – 1.0500 with keen interest, 1.0465 proved to be some major resistance last week and I have a gut feel that the market will want to see a close above 1.0500 to confirm the next move upwards.
For the time being, the sellers are holding the cards in cable and the buyers will be looking for GBPUSD to close above 1.2300 to gain a little bit of confidence. Support comes in at 1.2240 and this will define the market today.
Both the 100 hour and 200 hour MA are respecting its levels today, with price finding resistance at 117.50. I was concerned that this pair didn’t push on through much lower last week and I am hesitant to get into this pair too soon. This morning we are sitting on those MA levels and similar to the other major pairs – these will be defining and a close below tonight will reinforce a further move lower.
The NZDUSD could be a good trade today, it managed to stay above the swing low at 0.6890 for most of yesterday despite the good data out of the US, 0.6900 will still be a tough level to break through. This represents the 100 hour MA and the kiwi has not traded above this level since the FOMC meeting, a closed candle above this MA and we could see a run.
Daily Ranges 28/12/2016
Majors
EURUSD
Resistance 1.0480 – 1.0500
Support 1.0428 – 1.0415
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2304 – 1.2325
Support 1.2238 – 1.2324
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7207 – 0.7225
Support 0.7167 – 0.7150
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.6917 – 0.6930
Support 0.6873 – 0.6860
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3579 – 1.3590
Support 1.3515 – 1.3493
USDJPY
Resistance 117.70– 117.87
Support 116.99 – 116.87
USDCHF
Resistance 1.0296 – 1.0305
Support 1.0255 – 1.0245
Rand
USDZAR
Resistance 14.0107 – 14.0300
Support 13.8830 – 13.8527
EURZAR
Resistance 14.6037 – 14.6333
Support 14.5127 – 14.4740
GBPZAR
Resistance 17.1725 – 17.2333
Support 17.0230 – 16.9956
Minors
AUDCAD
Resistance 0.9779 – 0.9800
Support 0.9720 – 0.9703
AUDJPY
Resistance 84.72 – 84.93
Support 84.07 – 83.93
EURCHF
Resistance 1.0760 – 1.0790
Support 1.0730 – 1.0720
EURGBP
Resistance 0.8536 – 0.8550
Support 0.8500 – 0.8480
EURJPY
Resistance 123.14 – 123.25
Support 122.50 – 122.42
GBPJPY
Resistance 144.61 – 144.87
Support 143.65 – 143.49
GBPCAD
Resistance 1.6681 – 1.6700
Support 1.6589 – 1.6563
GBPCHF
Resistance 1.2619 – 1.2635
Support 1.2575 – 1.2559
CADCHF
Resistance 0.7595 – 0.7605
Support 0.7567 – 0.7560
Indices
DE30
Resistance 11473 – 11500
Support 11378 – 11352
UK100
Resistance 7055 – 7077
Support 7000 – 6980
US500
Resistance 2270 – 2300
Support 2264 – 2256
US30
Resistance 19980 – 20000
Support 19900 – 19850
SA40
Resistance 44400 – 44500
Support 43500 – 43000
Commodities
BRENT
Resistance 55.90 – 56.20
Support 54.30 – 54.00
XAUUSD
Resistance 1142.00 – 1147.11
Support 1133.10 – 1131.75
XAGUSD
Resistance 15.97 – 16.28
Support 15.80 – 15.63
Important Economic Data out today
- 17:00 USD Pending Home Sales
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