Forex Market Insight 26 November 2018

Market Insight Commentary – 26 November 2018

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Today's Market Fundamentals

After a small reprieve in the Brexit debate on Friday, I am sure that we are going to back in the thick of things this morning. There was talk of an agreement getting done over the weekend but the UK seems to have a new hurdle in Spain – who seem intent on there being no deal. Spain is “demanding” that Gibraltar is not included into any UK-EU free trade agreement but rather goes through bilateral agreements. My personal opinion is that Spain may forget that Gibraltar is British owned and in the grand scheme of things, Spain is not relevant within the EU anyway.

Theresa May has reiterated over the weekend that if the Parliament rejects the latest deal on the table then the UK would be worse off. I tend to agree with her, often the first deal is your best deal, but it seems that some quarters in Parliament are using this opportunity  to get rid of May which may come back to haunt them. The real risk of a no deal is becoming apparent with Boris Johnson calling for the divorce settlement to be held back, I would think that a hard Brexit would hurt both the UK and the EU. There is a scenario analysis being drawn up at this point which will be released later this week.

There is a further development starting to build between Russia and the Ukraine with Russia closing the Kerch Strait and seizing 3 Ukrainian vessels, there is reports of an exchange of fire. This could have the potential of having a negative effect on risk sentiment and we could see flows into the JPY and CHF.

Lost over the weekend was Bitcoin wiping another 10% and trading at 3,500, this means that the crypto currency has lost over 80% in 10 months and those looking for the bottom only seem to be trying to catch a falling knife.

Today's Market Trading Levels

  1. Brent BUY                              40 – 59.00
  1. WTI BUY                              78 – 50.00

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