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Market Insight Commentary – Forex
Today's News Headlines
- Hot on the heels of the GDP print, Donald Trump promised that growth would be higher as trade deals filtered in. I am not certain that this will be long term, there is a lot of factors that is going to dictate the “trade war.”
Market Insight Commentary – Indices
Market Recap
Friday was all about the GDP numbers, the market has been anticipating these numbers for the entire quarter. The read came in only slightly below consensus at 4.2% but the market may have been anticipating something somewhat stronger after President Trump had hinted 4.8% was on the cards. Despite the miss, Trump took the opportunity to gloat that this was the highest growth in over 14 years – I am sure that needs to be broken down further as I am not entirely certain this is accurate.
Either way, this growth was pretty impressive and you would have expected for the trifecta – higher dollar, higher rates and higher stock markets. The exact opposite played out, the markets are really tricky at the moment and so there will need to be some patience practiced – there is a lot of event risk this week and this leading into August could become a little illiquid.
The EURUSD moved lower over the course of last week and on Friday traded as low as 1.1610 before we saw a high at 1.1660. As we stated last week the EURUSD is trading in a very tight range which is evident from a very flat MACD, with all the event risk this week there could be a breakout of this range so be patient.
The GBPUSD has been the most attractive pair from a technical analysis point of view this week, we have some pretty big MA levels starting to converge. The 100 week MA trades at around 1.3070 and this is where the low for the week was, this should create a floor leads into the week. On the topside, the 200 hour MA at 1.3110 and the 100 hour MA at 1.3135 is also in sight. If momentum is able to get above both the 100 and 200 hour MA then the bears could possibly start turning into buyers.
I will be eagerly waiting the equity markets this week as the earnings season will continue to dominate the moves.
Important Economic Data Due Today
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