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Market Insight Commentary – 31 May 2018

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Market Insight Commentary – Forex

Today's News Headlines

  • Donald Trump predictions that pharmaceutical drug costs will drop in the next two weeks should signal some warnings. Don’t be surprised if we also see him have another attempt at Obamacare.

Market Insight Commentary – Indices

Market Recap

It always amazes me how quickly the financial markets rebound from a major news story, after all the chaos the political shenanigans in Italy has caused in the last two weeks – it was put on the back burner yesterday. There was thus a reversal of fortune for the major FX pairs, stocks and bonds – in truth, I am not entirely certain this will hold as there are a still a lot of balls in the air.

The major moves were in the debt markets as European and UK yields moved higher, and with major equity bourses bouncing there was plenty ammunition for the FX pairs to rally. The EUR in particular was the strongest currency yesterday as a lot of the price action from Tuesday was completely erased.

The USDCAD was the big mover though on the back of the Bank of Canada meeting, the catalyst for the move was the BOC removing the word “cautious,” from their statement which suggests we can see an interest rate hike in July. I have no doubt that the Canadians will try and walk back this statement and I will be ready for anything.

Markets are tough, and with NFP on the agenda tomorrow you may find that the market is undecided today. I will look at a couple of pairs but I suspect that almost everything will be in counter trend mode.

Important Economic Data Due Today

14:30                           CAD                             GDP 

Consensus:                   0.2%

Effect:                          Higher than expected is good for the CAD

17:00                           USD                              Crude Oil Inventories

Consensus:                   -0.4%

Effect:                          No consistent effect on the USD

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