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Dean's Daily FX Update – 19 June 2017
In the Zone
- AUDUSD
- NZDUSD
- USDCAD
Noteworthy News
- Another tragic attack in London last night has left the city reeling. I will keep an eye on two fronts – firstly, at what point will we start to some retaliatory action. Secondly, how will this affect Brexit negotiations, will recent attacks mean that Britain closes its borders?
Recap
Another week and yet another tragic story out of the UK, this time we are seeing something back to the norm we experienced a couple weeks ago – a van being driven into innocent people as well as stabbings. The only difference is that this attack seemed to be targeted at people of the Muslim faith, these regular attacks are starting to raise the heat on government and you just wonder when those with influence will say enough is enough.
I will be keeping an eye on the President Trump twitter account and I would not be surprised if he is itching to call for military action soon. There were also some political developments over the weekend that come in as expected – in France, President Macron has easily won a parliamentary majority but again the victory was not as large as he was expecting. In Germany the polls are showing Angela Merkel with a comfortable lead and this would buoy the German equity markets. The only blip was in Japan where PM Abe is starting to see a gradual decline in his approval ratings which may be something to keep an eye on.
Other than the NZDUSD, a glance at the daily charts would suggest that the markets are relatively unchanged thus far. Both the EURUSD and GBPUSD seem to be treading water, the EU stance towards the UK has softened since the election results and there are increasing rumours circulating that there may not even be a Brexit after all. The negotiations start up again today and this is the reason that I will sit both of these pairs out – headlines could move either pair.
As mentioned earlier in this report, the NZDUSD was the misnomer this morning and it continued its relentless march higher. The market tried to assign this move to good economic data, but I am not convinced by that argument. Either way, there is nice divergence forming on the daily chart which means that although the pair is moving higher – it is with very little momentum and you get the impression that this pair has to pop, perhaps the RBNZ meeting on Wednesday will be the catalyst.
The dollar has seen some broad strength today, perhaps some early signs that the greenback is keen to start its recovery. I am still searching for opportunity in the commodity currencies and in particular the NZDUSD.
Daily Ranges 19/06/2017
Majors
EURUSD
Resistance 1.1200 – 1.1220
Support 1.1160 – 1.1140
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2800 – 1.2820
Support 1.2710 – 1.2690
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7620 – 0.7630
Support 0.7580 – 0.7570
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.7260 – 0.7280
Support 0.7220 – 0.7200
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3270 – 1.3290
Support 1.3200 – 1.3190
USDJPY
Resistance 111.20 – 111.40
Support 110.50 – 110.30
USDCHF
Resistance 0.9750 – 0.9770
Support 0.9700 – 0.9680
Rand
USDZAR
Resistance 12.8840 – 12.9250
Support 12.7400 – 12.7150
EURZAR
Resistance 14.3840 – 14.4300
Support 14.2840 – 14.2500
GBPZAR
Resistance 16.4580 – 16.5060
Support 16.2650 – 16.2200
Minors
AUDCAD
Resistance 1.0090 – 1.0210
Support 1.0040 – 1.0020
AUDJPY
Resistance 84.60 – 84.80
Support 83.90 – 83.70
EURCHF
Resistance 1.0890 – 1.0900
Support 1.0850 – 1.0830
EURGBP
Resistance 0.8760 – 0.8780
Support 0.8710 – 0.8690
EURJPY
Resistance 124.20 – 124.50
Support 123.40 – 123.20
GBPJPY
Resistance 142.10 – 142.30
Support 141.20 – 141.00
GBPCAD
Resistance 1.6950 – 1.6970
Support 1.6840 – 1.6820
GBPCHF
Resistance 1.2460 – 1.2480
Support 1.2380 – 1.2360
Indices
DE30
Resistance 12890 – 12910
Support 12700 – 12680
UK100
Resistance 7530 – 7550
Support 7430 – 7410
US500
Resistance 2440 – 2460
Support 2420 – 2400
US30
Resistance 21460 – 21480
Support 21380 – 21350
SA40
Resistance
Support
Commodities
BRENT
Resistance 47.70 – 47.90
Support 46.80 – 46.40
XAUUSD
Resistance 1290 – 1300
Support 1250 – 1230
XAGUSD
Resistance 16.70 – 16.80
Support 16.50 – 16.30
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