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19 June 2017 – Dean Forex Market Commentary

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Dean's Daily FX Update – 19 June 2017

In the Zone

  • AUDUSD
  • NZDUSD
  • USDCAD

Noteworthy News

  • Another tragic attack in London last night has left the city reeling. I will keep an eye on two fronts – firstly, at what point will we start to some retaliatory action. Secondly, how will this affect Brexit negotiations, will recent attacks mean that Britain closes its borders?

Recap

Another week and yet another tragic story out of the UK, this time we are seeing something back to the norm we experienced a couple weeks ago – a van being driven into innocent people as well as stabbings. The only difference is that this attack seemed to be targeted at people of the Muslim faith, these regular attacks are starting to raise the heat on government and you just wonder when those with influence will say enough is enough.

I will be keeping an eye on the President Trump twitter account and I would not be surprised if he is itching to call for military action soon. There were also some political developments over the weekend that come in as expected – in France, President Macron has easily won a parliamentary majority but again the victory was not as large as he was expecting. In Germany the polls are showing Angela Merkel with a comfortable lead and this would buoy the German equity markets. The only blip was in Japan where PM Abe is starting to see a gradual decline in his approval ratings which may be something to keep an eye on.

Other than the NZDUSD, a glance at the daily charts would suggest that the markets are relatively unchanged thus far. Both the EURUSD and GBPUSD seem to be treading water, the EU stance towards the UK has softened since the election results and there are increasing rumours circulating that there may not even be a Brexit after all. The negotiations start up again today and this is the reason that I will sit both of these pairs out – headlines could move either pair.

As mentioned earlier in this report, the NZDUSD was the misnomer this morning and it continued its relentless march higher. The market tried to assign this move to good economic data, but I am not convinced by that argument. Either way, there is nice divergence forming on the daily chart which means that although the pair is moving higher – it is with very little momentum and you get the impression that this pair has to pop, perhaps the RBNZ meeting on Wednesday will be the catalyst.

The dollar has seen some broad strength today, perhaps some early signs that the greenback is keen to start its recovery. I am still searching for opportunity in the commodity currencies and in particular the NZDUSD.

Daily Ranges 19/06/2017

Majors

EURUSD

Resistance                                          1.1200 – 1.1220

Support                                                1.1160 – 1.1140

GBPUSD

Resistance                                          1.2800 – 1.2820

Support                                                1.2710 – 1.2690

AUDUSD

Resistance                                          0.7620 – 0.7630

Support                                                0.7580 – 0.7570

NZDUSD

Resistance                                          0.7260 – 0.7280

Support                                                0.7220 – 0.7200

USDCAD

Resistance                                          1.3270 – 1.3290

Support                                                1.3200 – 1.3190

USDJPY

Resistance                                          111.20 – 111.40

Support                                                110.50 – 110.30

USDCHF

Resistance                                          0.9750 – 0.9770

Support                                                0.9700 – 0.9680

Rand

USDZAR

Resistance                                          12.8840 – 12.9250

Support                                                12.7400 – 12.7150           

EURZAR

Resistance                                          14.3840 – 14.4300

Support                                                14.2840 – 14.2500

GBPZAR

Resistance                                          16.4580 – 16.5060

Support                                                16.2650 – 16.2200

Minors

AUDCAD

Resistance                                          1.0090 – 1.0210

Support                                                1.0040 – 1.0020

AUDJPY

Resistance                                          84.60 – 84.80

Support                                                83.90 – 83.70

EURCHF

Resistance                                          1.0890 – 1.0900

Support                                                1.0850 – 1.0830

EURGBP

Resistance                                          0.8760 – 0.8780

Support                                                0.8710 – 0.8690

EURJPY

Resistance                                          124.20 – 124.50

Support                                                123.40 – 123.20

GBPJPY

Resistance                                          142.10 – 142.30

Support                                                141.20 – 141.00

GBPCAD

Resistance                                          1.6950 – 1.6970

Support                                                1.6840 – 1.6820

GBPCHF

Resistance                                          1.2460 – 1.2480

Support                                                1.2380 – 1.2360

Indices

DE30

Resistance                                          12890 – 12910

Support                                                12700 – 12680

UK100

Resistance                                          7530 – 7550                        

Support                                                7430 – 7410

US500

Resistance                                          2440 – 2460

Support                                                2420 – 2400

US30

Resistance                                          21460 – 21480

Support                                                21380 – 21350

SA40

Resistance                                         

Support                                               

Commodities

BRENT

Resistance                                          47.70 – 47.90

Support                                                46.80 – 46.40

XAUUSD

Resistance                                          1290 – 1300

Support                                                1250 – 1230

XAGUSD

Resistance                                          16.70 – 16.80

Support                                                16.50 – 16.30

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