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Market Insight Commentary – Forex
Today's News Headlines
- It seems as though Donald Trump has been pencilled in to speak on Wednesday, it will not doubt be on the tax plan. This could affect the dollar on a day where the Fed are set to announce another rate hike.
Market Insight Commentary – Indices
Market Recap
The market focused in on the US jobs report on Friday, and in true holiday mood, the report had a little bit for everyone. The Jobs number was very strong, but once again the wage number was rather disappointing. This meant that the dollar was undecided as the greenback at first was to trade weaker, only to find support and trade back very quickly later on in the session.
This could be a tough week to trade the major pairs, there is the Fed that will be meeting on Wednesday, and never one to share the lime light it seems that Trump has now scheduled a press conference on Wednesday. Trumps statement is bound to be on taxes, considering that this is the first bill that this White House Administration has passed since taking office, it may just be an opportunity for him to remind everyone of what he has done in the last year, maybe give us an indication of what he has planned for the next year.
The FOMC in my opinion looks to be a done deal, the talking heads were in a rather bullish mood leading into the blackout period – I think they were telling the market ahead of time. The fed funds futures are suggesting that there is a 90% chance of a hike, and seeing that this is Yellens last meeting as, she will want to go with a “bang.” For those of you that are waiting to trade this on Wednesday, heed caution, this could very well be a “buy the rumour, sell the fact” kind of trade.
For those of you looking for volatility, I would probably look at the GBPUSD. There are rumours that the UK have agreed in principal on the divorce settlement, I say in principal because if the UK don’t get favourable trade terms then they will still walk away. The first scenario would see the GBP strengthen, while the second would see it weaken. I have said on many occasion, I will use any rally in cable as an opportunity to sell and anything around 1.3500 will see me building offers.
I am sure that Monday will be dominated by the launch of the Bitcoin futures exchange, the first couple of hours has been dominated by two circuit breakers – already. I suspect that they are going to have to widen the spread substantially to get that right, but it could put the dollar under some pressure this week. As you can see, this week is dominated by fundamental factors and hence the reason I think it may be a tough one.
Important Economic Data Due Today
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