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Dean's Daily FX Update – 15 June 2017
In the Zone
- EURUSD
- AUDUSD
- NZDUSD
- USDCAD
- USDJPY
- USDZAR
Noteworthy News
- Fed Chair Yellen seems to have put the inflation scenario to bed last night, comments that she was aware of the weaker data but countered that she is confident that those will improve should put the market at ease.
Recap
Yesterday was a little bit of an emotional roller coaster ride, the morning started off in typical subdued fashion ahead of the FOMC decision. The market was turned upside down when the US data was released, the CPI data missed expectations and the market completely sold off the USD as they started to expect a rather dovish Fed. The move was rather surprising to me though as the CPI came in at 1.90% vs 2.00%, hardly a terrible number, yet the market behaved like we were about to experience Armageddon.
We did get the interest rate hike and yet the market did not react straight away, choosing instead to wait for the press conference. I am sometimes critical of Fed Chair Yellen, but for the first time she was not the non-committal leader we have come to know – instead she was poised and confident, perhaps a sign that she is finally confident that the Fed are on the right path. She blamed the inflation miss on once offs and seemed not too concerned about the reading, the market did a round trip and the dollar made back sits earlier losses. Could she have become hawkish?
Cable is one pair that I will continue to sit on the side-lines. They have a very unique set of circumstances that they are currently dealing with and any news can move this pair. I can only look at how price behaved this time last year when the initial bounce formed a tight range for the best part of four months. It does look like something similar is happening and that 1.2810 is fast becoming a resistance level that the buyers are going to battle to break through.
The USDCAD is another that has been through the ringer this week, we had very hawkish statements coming out of Canada this week – both were unscheduled and this always raises some red flags for me. Despite the early morning pressure, the pair finished the day unchanged but I do suspect that the dollar may make some in roads this week.
I cover almost all the pairs in the video this morning, I am still looking for opportunity in the commodity pairs as almost all of them were heavily overdone in the last couple of weeks.
Daily Ranges 15/06/2017
Majors
EURUSD
Resistance 1.1220 – 1.1240
Support 1.1160 – 1.1140
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2790 – 1.2800
Support 1.2710 – 1.2690
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7600 – 0.7610
Support 0.7550 – 0.7540
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.7250 – 0.7260
Support 0.7200 – 0.7190
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3270 – 1.3290
Support 1.3200 – 1.3190
USDJPY
Resistance 110.10 – 110.30
Support 109.40 – 109.30
USDCHF
Resistance 0.9730 – 0.9750
Support 0.9680 – 0.9660
Rand
USDZAR
Resistance 12.7380 – 12.7750
Support 12.6370 – 12.6050
EURZAR
Resistance 14.2570 – 14.2900
Support 14.1840 – 14.1500
GBPZAR
Resistance 16.2580 – 16.3060
Support 16.0850 – 16.0500
Minors
AUDCAD
Resistance 1.0070 – 1.0100
Support 1.0000 – 0.9970
AUDJPY
Resistance 83.40 – 83.80
Support 82.80 – 82.50
EURCHF
Resistance 1.0860 – 1.0880
Support 1.0840 – 1.0820
EURGBP
Resistance 0.8820 – 0.8840
Support 0.8780 – 0.8750
EURJPY
Resistance 123.20 – 123.50
Support 122.40 – 122.20
GBPJPY
Resistance 140.40 – 140.60
Support 139.20 – 139.00
GBPCAD
Resistance 1.6930 – 1.6950
Support 1.6820 – 1.6800
GBPCHF
Resistance 1.2390 – 1.2400
Support 1.2330 – 1.2310
Indices
DE30
Resistance 12840 – 12860
Support 12700 – 12680
UK100
Resistance
Support
US500
Resistance 2440 – 2460
Support 2420 – 2400
US30
Resistance 21360 – 21380
Support 21280 – 21250
SA40
Resistance
Support
Commodities
BRENT
Resistance 48.10 – 48.30
Support 47.40 – 47.40
XAUUSD
Resistance 1290 – 1300
Support 1250 – 1230
XAGUSD
Resistance 17.10 – 17.30
Support 16.70 – 16.50
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