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27 September 2017- Dean Forex Market Commentary

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Dean's Daily FX Update – 27 September 2017

 

In the Zone

  • EURUSD
  • USDCAD
  • USDJPY
  • USDZAR
  • Oil

Noteworthy News

  • Just when we thought that world politics was starting to normalize, we get news that the New Zealand election will probably result in a coalition government.

Recap

For a day that looked heavy on the news flow, there seemed nothing that could ignite the market into any volatility. By time New York opened, the market had decided that it would wait for the Yellen speech, when the statement hit the wires the slant was towards that of a dovish tone. We then had another agency present it with a slightly hawkish slant, this confusion meant that the dollar moved slightly stronger and then slightly weaker again – we basically learnt nothing from this. The dollar ended the day slightly stronger on the day.

The EURUSD seems to be in a bit of a “holding pattern” at present, although I suspect that the pair would be relieved that there was no surprises in the German election – in my opinion the victory was not as convincing as she would have expected though. The bias I have for this pair is to wait it out a little bit and rather look for longs than shorts.

It is difficult to pin point levels this morning, I think that the entire market may just tread water today ahead of an expected announcement out of the US on tax reform. We also need to factor in that we have event risk out of both Canada and New Zealand in the form of Central Bank comments, we have also North Korea worries fade somewhat last night – I am still not sure if that is a good or bad thing?

Either way, it is a fundamental trader’s paradise at present, but I have highlighted a couple pairs in the morning video which illustrates some possible set ups brewing.

Important Economic Data out today

14:30                                     USD                                       Core Durable Goods

Consensus:                         0.2%

Effect:                                   Actual higher than expected is good for the USD

 

16:30                                     USD                                       Crude Oil Inventories

Consensus:                         2.9M

Effect:                                   No consistent effect on the USD

 

17:45                                     CAD                                       BOC Governor Poloz Speaks

Consensus:                         None

Effect:                                   More hawkish than expected is good for the USD

 

22:00                                     NZD                                       BOC Governor Poloz Speaks

Consensus:                         1.75%

Effect:                                   Actual higher than expected is good for the NZD

 

22:00                                     NZD                                       RBNZ Rate Statement

Consensus:                         None

Effect:                                   More hawkish than expected is good for the NZD

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