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Dean's Daily FX Update – 11 May 2017
In the Zone
- GBPUSD
- AUDUSD
- NZDUSD
- USDCAD
- USDZAR
Noteworthy News
- After all the mudslinging in recent weeks, the Germans sounded a little conciliatory last night. Could this be a ruse to soften up the Brits, or are Germany realising that the EU is not far from changing – and they don’t want to be the ones to turn off the lights?
Recap
It was more of the same last night as the dollar seemed to be in demand during the New York session, it is notable that the dollar demand was more of a slow strangle than cavalier. It may be the time of the year, it may be the uncertain geopolitical environment we are currently in but I suspect that no one is really keen on giving direction.
The EURUSD looked vulnerable yesterday and seemed poised to trade a lot lower, the ever unreliable Draghi changed that somewhat by delivering an optimistic speech. This allowed the pair to trade higher by 20 pips and trade to 1.0880, the late dollar demand sent the pair trading down to 1.0850 by close of day. The intraday charts are suggesting that we could be in for a bounce today, but 1.0880 – 1.0900 will be pivotal levels to watch this morning, and another rejection will see the sellers look to fill the gap that is still currently open.
The USDCAD endured another tough day yesterday, it looked as though the buyers and sellers were having a real tussle to gain the initiative. In the end of the day, the sellers were able to gain 50 points, infused by the really surprising crude oil inventory number and the pair tested around 1.3650. Late last night a downgrade to negative outlook by Moody’s sent the loonie back to 1.3730, this is my level of interest, but I will wait to get direction from both London and the NY open before jumping in as there could be a residual move higher. We have a 61.8% fib at 1.3770 which would be a more attractive entry.
The NZD was the best performer yesterday, it was also notable how most the gains come in the London session and actually found a little bit of resistance late last night. The market was eagerly awaiting the interest rate decision and accompanying press conference, we were expecting a hawkish tone and instead we got something really neutral and this led the NZDUSD to trade down to 0.6850, from as high as 0.6950. Like the CAD, this pair is now teasing us with multiple reasons to look for a bounce, but like the CAD I am going to see how London and NY trade this pair as there could be a residual move lower.
Almost all the pairs do looked poised to make a move today – almost mocking. We have big event risk in the GBP today, for the rest – try and stay patient, I know it seems impossible at times, but there are some handsome rewards on offer for those who can.
Daily Ranges 11/05/2017
Majors
EURUSD
Resistance 1.0880 – 1.0900
Support 1.0850 – 1.0820
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2960 – 1.2980
Support 1.2900 – 1.2880
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7380 – 0.7400
Support 0.7320 – 0.7300
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.6900 – 0.6920
Support 0.6840 – 0.6820
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3750 – 1.3770
Support 1.3660 – 1.3640
USDJPY
Resistance 114.20 – 114.30
Support 113.80 – 113.60
USDCHF
Resistance 1.0090 – 1.0100
Support 1.0040 – 1.0020
Rand
USDZAR
Resistance 13.5700 – 13.6000
Support 13.4150 – 13.3770
EURZAR
Resistance 14.8040 – 14.8440
Support 14.5840 – 14.5500
GBPZAR
Resistance 17.5700 – 17.6000
Support 17.3560 – 17.3050
Minors
AUDCAD
Resistance 1.0107 – 1.0120
Support 1.0050 – 1.0010
AUDJPY
Resistance 84.00 – 84.30
Support 83.50 – 83.30
EURCHF
Resistance 1.0960 – 1.0980
Support 1.0900 – 1.0870
EURGBP
Resistance 0.8430 – 0.8460
Support 0.8370 – 0.8350
EURJPY
Resistance 124.30 – 124.50
Support 123.50 – 123.30
GBPJPY
Resistance 147.80 – 148.00
Support 147.00 – 146.80
GBPCAD
Resistance 1.7770 – 1.7790
Support 1.7690 – 1.7670
GBPCHF
Resistance 1.3060 – 1.3080
Support 1.3000 – 1.2950
Indices
DE30
Resistance 12790 – 12820
Support 12650 – 12600
UK100
Resistance
Support
US500
Resistance 2400 – 2420
Support 2390 – 2370
US30
Resistance 21000 – 21100
Support 20900 – 20870
SA40
Resistance 48500 – 49000
Support 47200 – 47000
Commodities
BRENT
Resistance 50.70 – 51.00
Support 48.70 – 48.50
XAUUSD
Resistance 1220.00 – 1230.00
Support 1210.00 – 1200.00
XAGUSD
Resistance 16.30 – 16.50
Support 16.00 – 15.80
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