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Dean's Daily FX Update – 05 May 2017
In the Zone
- EURUSD
- GBPUSD
- AUDUSD
- NZDUSD
- USDCAD
- USDJPY
- USDZAR
Noteworthy News
- Macron is odds on favourite to win the French election this weekend, where have we heard this before? If Le Pen were to surprise the market then there will be massive gaps on Sunday evening.
Recap
Yesterday was a bit of a strange day, the US seemed to be on edge as we eagerly awaited the results on the repeal of Obamacare. The dollar strengthened leading into the vote as expectations of a win became apparent, but the greenback gave back a lot of those gains after the result, the vote passed by a 217 – 213 margin. The White House and Republicans will see that as a win, but I suspect that they will come back to down to earth this morning, that winning margin is a disappointment and suggests not all the Republicans are on board, I suspect that the US Senate will reject this legislation and so it will back to the drawing board.
The commodity currencies were battered yesterday as the underlying commodities came under massive pressure. Oil was a big loser, dropping by almost 5% on the day, my gut says that stops were triggered, either way I am walking away from oil today. There is a lot of fundamental games that can affect oil and so I would rather let someone else dictate the bounce for us.
The EURUSD was the star performer yesterday, the ECB speech yesterday and hopes that Macron will win the French Election this weekend was the catalyst for the pair to trade through its recent range. The key level to watch today and this weekend is 1.1000, a move and close above this level will encourage the bulls will to target 1.1100.
The USDJPY traded nicely yesterday, the sellers leaned against both the upper trend line and the 61.8% fib as the pair traded from 113.00 down to 112.15. This will be the key support level to watch this morning, the 100 day MA now trades at 113.18 – near our trend line – it has been close on 6 weeks since this MA has broken so keep that in mind on the next bounce up.
The AUDUSD fell to its lowest levels this calendar year, although it found some support at 0.7385 the bounce was modest. This morning could be defining for this pair, the bulls will want to see a convincing bounce above 0.7400 to get excited and carry this momentum. Sustained trading below the 0.7400 level could spell trouble for the pair.
We have event risk in the form of NFP data today, last month was a shocker although it was blamed on the weather – is that an indication that we can expect much better data this month? We also have a press conference by both Yellen and Fischer this evening, considering there were not many clues out of the FOMC statement on Wednesday, these speeches may give the insight. I am not in the market today, there is a lot of event risk leading into this weekend and I am hesitant to have an open position leading into Monday.
Daily Ranges 05/05/2017
Majors
EURUSD
Resistance 1.0970 – 1.0999
Support 1.0900 – 1.0880
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2930 – 1.2950
Support 1.2875 – 1.2850
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7430 – 0.7450
Support 0.7380 – 0.7360
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.6890 – 0.6920
Support 0.6840 – 0.6820
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3780 – 1.3380
Support 1.3690 – 1.3670
USDJPY
Resistance 112.80 – 113.00
Support 112.20 – 112.00
USDCHF
Resistance 0.9940 – 0.9970
Support 0.9870 – 0.9850
Rand
USDZAR
Resistance 13.7800 – 13.8200
Support 13.4550 – 13.4270
EURZAR
Resistance 14.9640 – 14.9940
Support 14.7260 – 14.6800
GBPZAR
Resistance 17.6400 – 17.6900
Support 17.3550 – 17.3250
Minors
AUDCAD
Resistance 1.0210 – 1.0240
Support 1.0150 – 1.0130
AUDJPY
Resistance 83.60 – 83.80
Support 82.90 – 82.70
EURCHF
Resistance 1.0850 – 1.0870
Support 1.0800 – 1.0770
EURGBP
Resistance 0.8490 – 0.8520
Support 0.8420 – 0.8400
EURJPY
Resistance 123.50 – 123.80
Support 122.70 – 122.50
GBPJPY
Resistance 145.50 – 145.70
Support 144.70 – 144.50
GBPCAD
Resistance 1.7810 – 1.7830
Support 1.7690 – 1.7670
GBPCHF
Resistance 1.2800 – 1.2820
Support 1.2740 – 1.2720
Indices
DE30
Resistance 12640 – 12660
Support 12550 – 12530
UK100
Resistance
Support
US500
Resistance 2390 – 2400
Support 2350 – 2340
US30
Resistance 20970 – 21000
Support 20850 – 20800
SA40
Resistance 47700 – 47850
Support 46900 – 46700
Commodities
BRENT
Resistance 48.70 – 49.00
Support 46.60 – 46.30
XAUUSD
Resistance 1260.00 – 1270.00
Support 1230.00 – 1210.00
XAGUSD
Resistance 16.70 – 16.80
Support 16.40 – 16.20
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