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Dean's Daily FX Update – 04 May 2017
In the Zone
- EURUSD
- GBPUSD
- AUDUSD
- USDCAD
- USDJPY
- USDZAR
Noteworthy News
- All staff across the royal households have been summoned by the Queens senior aides for an emergency meeting. This is most unusual and I am sure rumours will start circulating on whether the Queen will stand down – I am not sure if this will affect the currency but something to keep an eye on.
Recap
As expected, the market felt like a ghost town yesterday as everyone was nervous to buy dollars ahead of the FOMC. The meeting did not give much, and there were no hints as to the next hike or how many we could expect, they did literally ignore the poor economic growth in Quarter 1 and in my opinion that could mean a hike in June. The US treasuries are pricing in a 90% probability, either way the market was still hesitant in the aftermath of the meeting and I stand by my comments yesterday that Friday may be more important than the FOMC meeting.
There is some political scheming brewing between PM May in the UK and Junker in the EU. The EU are going to try and make this exit as hard as possible to try and avoid other members doing the same in the future. If you asked me, I think the EU are between a rock and a hard place as in my opinion it is inevitable that the EU in its current format will disintegrate at some point. UK Parliament dissolved yesterday, there are local elections this week and the general election is in a month, if May wins by a landslide, then Brexit will be soft. Throw in the French elections this weekend, and the both the EUR and GBP could be in for some volatility.
USDCAD continues to be pushed and pulled by a “crazy” oil price and the pair finished higher for a ninth consecutive day. Momentum is slowing, it is telling that the CAD actually strengthened against all the other pairs except the USD, patience in this pair will be rewarded as I think when we do get a retracement here – it could be a deep one. I continue to wait divergence on the higher time frames.
The commodity currencies are being smashed against anything at the moment, as soft data out of China filters across into these pairs. I am hesitant to trade these pairs at the moment, although I suspect the speech from RBA Governor could give the AUDUSD a boost.
Daily Ranges 04/05/2017
Majors
EURUSD
Resistance 1.0930 – 1.0950
Support 1.0880 – 1.0860
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2930 – 1.2950
Support 1.2875 – 1.2850
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7480 – 0.7490
Support 0.7400 – 0.7380
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.6920 – 0.6930
Support 0.6860 – 0.6840
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3730 – 1.3750
Support 1.3650 – 1.3620
USDJPY
Resistance 112.80 – 113.00
Support 112.20 – 112.00
USDCHF
Resistance 0.9950 – 1.0000
Support 0.9920 – 0.9900
Rand
USDZAR
Resistance 13.4300 – 13.4700
Support 13.3250 – 13.2870
EURZAR
Resistance 14.6340 – 14.6740
Support 14.4960 – 14.4500
GBPZAR
Resistance 17.3030 – 17.3500
Support 17.1350 – 17.0950
Minors
AUDCAD
Resistance 1.0260 – 1.0280
Support 1.0160 – 1.0140
AUDJPY
Resistance 84.10 – 84.30
Support 83.60 – 83.40
EURCHF
Resistance 1.0830 – 1.0850
Support 1.0800 – 1.0770
EURGBP
Resistance 0.8460 – 0.8480
Support 0.8420 – 0.8400
EURJPY
Resistance 122.90 – 123.10
Support 122.10 – 122.00
GBPJPY
Resistance 145.30 – 145.50
Support 144.20 – 144.00
GBPCAD
Resistance 1.7730 – 1.7750
Support 1.7640 – 1.7620
GBPCHF
Resistance 1.2840 – 1.2870
Support 1.2760 – 1.2740
Indices
DE30
Resistance 12540 – 12560
Support 12470 – 12450
UK100
Resistance
Support
US500
Resistance 2390 – 2400
Support 2350 – 2340
US30
Resistance 20970 – 21000
Support 20850 – 20800
SA40
Resistance 47700 – 47850
Support 46400 – 46200
Commodities
BRENT
Resistance 51.10 – 51.30
Support 50.60 – 50.40
XAUUSD
Resistance 1260.00 – 1270.00
Support 1230.00 – 1210.00
XAGUSD
Resistance 16.70 – 16.80
Support 16.40 – 16.20
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