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Dean's Daily FX Update – 20 April 2017
In the Zone
- EURUSD
- GBPUSD
- AUDUSD
- USDCAD
Noteworthy News
- UK Parliament voted to ratify the General Election. Keep an eye on the polls as this could really affect the GBPUSD going forward.
Recap
There was not much economic data out on the wires yesterday, there were a couple of talking Feds, all of whom suggested that they favoured unwinding of the balance sheet. I suspect that this is what we have seen been priced into the US treasuries, I am still trying to decide how this unwind will look though as the balance sheet must be well over 4 trillion.
The General Election in the UK was ratified yesterday and is scheduled for 8 June, all the euphoria from Tuesday lost some of it is gloss and the GBPUSD did have a small retracement. The sterling was trading at its extremes against all the pairs though and so this retracement was to be expected, the market from here on in will try and decide if cable was merely taking a pause. We cover cable in the morning video.
The big mover yesterday was the oil price, there was inventory data out yesterday but the fundamental driver of oil at this point in time is concern over what lies in store once the production quotas expire. Both OPEC and no-OPEC oil producing countries are currently in discussion and I suspect that an agreement will come to the fore. Oil broke through 100 day MA on its way to tumbling by 4%. This move also drove the USDCAD to its March high, we have previous resistance trading at 1.3485 and I suspect that this is where traders will start leaning.
The EURUSD broker through strong resistance at 1.0675 on Tuesday and although it did correct somewhat the low of the day was able to stay above 1.0700 which is good news for the bulls. The top side was contained 1.0737 and these two levels will represent levels where traders will look to break this week. I can see confluence between the 50% fib and the 200 day MA trading at 1.0790 and I suspect that is where the market may start looking for shorts.
The momentum in the USDJPY has clearly started to wane in the last couple of days, and I suspect that this may mean that the US treasuries may also start to lose momentum. Price in this pair has been hovering around that 100 hour MA at 108.73, we have confluence there in that the 200 day MA trades at 108.90. This suggests to me that the market is not too certain as to where it wants to trade now and so I would keep an eye US yields to dictate the next move.
Daily Ranges 20/04/2017
Majors
EURUSD
Resistance 1.0750 – 1.0790
Support 1.0690 – 1.0660
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2850 – 1.2900
Support 1.2740 – 1.2720
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7570 – 0.7600
Support 0.7500 – 0.7480
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.7040 – 0.7060
Support 0.7000 – 0.6980
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3480 – 1.3500
Support 1.3430 – 1.3400
USDJPY
Resistance 109.08 – 109.30
Support 108.50 – 108.30
USDCHF
Resistance 1.0000 – 1.0010
Support 0.9950 – 0.9930
Rand
USDZAR
Resistance 13.3400 – 13.3850
Support 13.1850 – 13.1570
EURZAR
Resistance 14.3040 – 14.3340
Support 14.1660 – 14.1300
GBPZAR
Resistance 17.1080 – 17.1700
Support 16.8020 – 16.7350
Minors
AUDCAD
Resistance 1.0150 – 1.0170
Support 1.0080 – 1.0060
AUDJPY
Resistance 82.07 – 82.20
Support 81.50 – 81.30
EURCHF
Resistance 1.0705 – 1.0730
Support 1.0670 – 1.0630
EURGBP
Resistance 0.8390 – 0.8410
Support 0.8320 – 0.8300
EURJPY
Resistance 117.20 – 117.50
Support 116.20 – 116.00
GBPJPY
Resistance 140.10 – 140.30
Support 138.70 – 138.50
GBPCAD
Resistance 1.7270 – 1.7250
Support 1.7060 – 1.7000
GBPCHF
Resistance 1.2790 – 1.2820
Support 1.2700 – 1.2650
Indices
DE30
Resistance 12030 – 12080
Support 11960 – 11940
UK100
Resistance 7380 – 7400
Support 7340 – 7320
US500
Resistance 2340 – 2370
Support 2330 – 2300
US30
Resistance 20650 – 20700
Support 20600 – 20580
SA40
Resistance 47200 – 47400
Support 46000 – 45500
Commodities
BRENT
Resistance 54.50 – 54.80
Support 53.50 – 53.10
XAUUSD
Resistance 1280.00 – 1285.00
Support 1270.00 – 1260.00
XAGUSD
Resistance 18.20 – 18.40
Support 17.80 – 17.50
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