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Dean's Daily FX Update – 02 May 2017
In the Zone
- EURUSD
- USDCAD
- USDJPY
- USDZAR
Noteworthy News
- If I could be a fly on the wall during the Trump and Putin conversation this afternoon, feedback on this call later this evening could be key with regards to potential conflict in Syria and North Korea. The world will want to know if the US and Russia are allies, and this could give some insight.
Recap
Most of the world, with the exception of North America enjoyed a public holiday yesterday, and so liquidity during the day was a little subdued. It did pick up later in the afternoon when New York opened, but most of the moves were off the back of White House comments.
Bloomberg released comments by Trump that he is willing to have face to face meetings with North Korea, and there is also the news that Trump and Putin will engage in talks this afternoon. The market seemed to enjoy these comments and if world leaders are able to stave off what at this time looks like likely conflict, we will all be better off. The dollar spent most the morning struggling against its major counterparts, but these comments seemed to start the momentum for dollar strengthening. I am not entirely certain how this affects the market just yet, traditionally the dollar strengthens when there is conflict and so logic suggests it should weaken if we are able to avert conflict – I am just not certain anymore.
The USDJPY spent most of the morning drifting towards 111.40 yesterday, a combination of these comments and an unrelenting tech industry led to a reversal and the pair closed closer to 111.90. I have put a downward sloping channel on the daily chart and I am not looking to trade this pair unless these extremes are breached – on the top side, 112.60 would be interesting to me.
The USDCAD continues to be the most frustrating currency to trade at the moment, just as we looked as though a pullback was on the cards, the CAD weakened again. The catalyst here was weakening oil prices as increased production out of Libya threatens to scupper a production freeze deal. Despite Canadian data looking strong, the 14 month highs at 1.3680 are back in sight, I will be monitoring this pair closely as there could be a deep retracement.
The AUDUSD managed to strengthen some this morning on positive comments out of the RBA, this despite the rates left on hold. Keep an eye on resistance at 0.7550, the bulls will need this level to break if there is going to be any momentum built here.
Daily Ranges 02/05/2017
Majors
EURUSD
Resistance 1.0930 – 1.0950
Support 1.0870 – 1.0850
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2930 – 1.2950
Support 1.2850 – 1.2820
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7520 – 0.7540
Support 0.7490 – 0.7470
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.6900 – 0.6930
Support 0.6860 – 0.6840
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3680 – 1.3700
Support 1.3610 – 1.3570
USDJPY
Resistance 112.20 – 112.40
Support 111.40 – 111.20
USDCHF
Resistance 0.9950 – 1.0000
Support 0.9920 – 0.9900
Rand
USDZAR
Resistance 13.4100 – 13.4400
Support 13.3050 – 13.2670
EURZAR
Resistance 14.6140 – 14.6440
Support 14.4960 – 14.4500
GBPZAR
Resistance 17.2530 – 17.3000
Support 17.1350 – 17.0950
Minors
AUDCAD
Resistance 1.0290 – 1.0300
Support 1.0230 – 1.0200
AUDJPY
Resistance 84.40 – 84.60
Support 83.60 – 83.30
EURCHF
Resistance 1.0840 – 1.0860
Support 1.0800 – 1.0780
EURGBP
Resistance 0.8480 – 0.8500
Support 0.8420 – 0.8400
EURJPY
Resistance 122.30 – 122.60
Support 121.60 – 121.30
GBPJPY
Resistance 144.60 – 144.90
Support 143.70 – 143.50
GBPCAD
Resistance 1.7690 – 1.7710
Support 1.7600 – 1.7570
GBPCHF
Resistance 1.2840 – 1.2870
Support 1.2780 – 1.2760
Indices
DE30
Resistance 12500 – 12520
Support 12390 – 12370
UK100
Resistance
Support
US500
Resistance 2390 – 2400
Support 2350 – 2340
US30
Resistance 21010 – 21050
Support 20850 – 20800
SA40
Resistance 47600 – 47850
Support 46400 – 46200
Commodities
BRENT
Resistance 52.20 – 52.40
Support 51.50 – 51.30
XAUUSD
Resistance 1260.00 – 1270.00
Support 1250.00 – 1230.00
XAGUSD
Resistance 17.10 – 17.30
Support 16.90 – 16.70
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