There is an Old Danish proverb that states, “It is difficult to make predictions – especially about the future.” For those of you that try and forecast any major event, you probably find yourselves on one of two spectrums. You either back the odds on favourite – the safe bet, or you back the highly implausible – the rank outsider.
With every passing day, I am starting to believe that 2016 could be the year that changes the world – the year that all the stars aligned and the rank outsider became a consistent winner. Social media has had an impact on the way we live our lives, but no more powerful than connecting the world with live news! No longer does the average person live their “boring” lives oblivious to what is happening in the world. This is a leading reason that on a macro scale the average person has found their voice, and collectively we are driving for change – any change – as long as it is change!!
We have seen how refugees from the Middle East have defied all the odds to find homes on continental Europe. The Brexit referendum was greeted with a record amount of voters and the unlikely victory of a “Leave” result. The Brits were fully aware of the consequences, but they wanted change – this was another win for the implausible. The craziness filtered into sport when Leicester City won the English Premiership and the West Indies won the T20 Cricket World Cup – in fact the only safe bet these days seems to be the New Zealand Rugby team.
There is a real sense that the rank outsiders have the bit between their teeth, we are starting to see some parallels drawn between the Brexit vote and the US Presidential Election. Hillary Clinton seemed to be a sure thing just a few weeks ago, but Donald Trump has refused to roll over and right at the end of the journey has turned this election into a tight affair – de je vu Brexit anyone? Are we going to see lightning strike twice – the implausible to rear its head again?
Leading up to the US Election on 8 November 2016, we are going to delve just a little into how the US Elections could affect the financial markets.