Forex Market Insight 29 November 2018

Market Insight Commentary – 29 November 2018

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Today's Market Fundamentals

It was a quiet morning yesterday with most of the major pairs and instruments trading in tight ranges heading into the weekend, we also had a speech from Fed Chair Powell to navigate. We touched on it last week that the Fed were perhaps trying to lead the expectation of the market, the market seemed to be caught off guard as Powell went off script yesterday and for some would think that he turned dove. What he did was put into doubt any possible rate hikes for next year, I think that his reasons are sound and the market should not be surprised as his team basically prepped us last week.

Brexit headlines were few and far between today as the market instead started deliberating if PM May would survive a vote in parliament, this allowed the sterling to bounce a little bit during the morning. Parliament and the BOE released their Brexit projections, and it does not make for pretty reading – Parliament believe that the economy will be 7.7% smaller in 15 years’ time whilst the BOE believe that GDP would be cut by 3% and the GBP to lose 25% of value, they also believe that a close relationship with the EU will boost the economy by 1.75%. I am going to take this study with a pinch of salt as there are no quantifiable measure for this, but it has put a no Brexit scenario on the table.

I would like to think that yesterday’s volatility will mean some opportunity to fade the dollar moves, but with G20 on the horizon and the all-important Trump/Xi meeting to come I am not to convinced that a deal is easy to come to – I think that I would probably choose to stay out the market for the rest of the week.

Today's Market Trading Levels

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