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Market Insight Commentary – Forex
Today's News Headlines
- Closer to home, South Africa has come to Donald Trump. The US president has instructed Secretary of State to monitor the land reform in South Africa.
Market Insight Commentary – Indices
Market Recap
After a relatively quiet week, the market was hoping that the FOMC meeting minutes would spark a little volatility – and with it some trading opportunities. There were not any major surprises, the Fed expect gradual hikes but warned that the GDP growth would probably slow in the second half of the year – all were adamant that trade disputes would place massive downside risk to the US economy.
The Fed stated that it would be appropriate in the “not too distant future,” to no longer expect monetary policy as accommodative. This would suggest that the Fed is close to rate neutrality, this does not change the fact that September is nailed on for a hike – but it doesn’t answer the question of what will happen in December.
There was also suggestion that NAFTA talks will be coming to an end soon, more specifically the US/Mexico side of things anyway. Canada has been on the outside looking in for the most part as US trade negotiators took the stance that it would be better to proceed negotiations separately. Some may say that this has a negative effect for Canada, but I am on the other side of that argument in that Canada is in a position of strength, as essentially a NAFTA agreement cannot be ratified without Canada’s approval.
I still don’t see any obvious opportunities in the FX market other than emerging market currencies such as the USDZAR, and so I continue with my strategy of seeking intraday opportunity in the Indices.
Important Economic Data Due Today
14:30 CAD Retail Sales
Consensus: – 0.1 %
Effect: Higher than expected is good for the CAD
16:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
Consensus: – 1.6M
Effect: No consistent effect on the USD
20:00 USD FOMC meeting minutes
Consensus: None
Effect: More hawkish than expected is good for the USD
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