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It was another quiet day in the financial markets with most of the major FX pairs trading slightly below their daily averages, this should be expected on a week like this leading into the US Thanksgiving holiday. It was surprising to me that the dollar was the weakest currency on the day, we were expecting some good trading opportunity in the commodity pair where we were able to take advantage – but I thought it may strengthen against the rest.
The EURUSD traded in a very tight range with the 100 day MA at 1.1754 still acting as major resistance. Recent lows at 1.1720 are still acting as support and these will be the levels to watch today, the sellers will have to take price closer to 1.1690. The 100 hour MA is at 1.1677 and this will be another level for the sellers to break to build some momentum. On the upside, a break of major resistance will target the 50% fib at 1.1825.
The major story in the financial markets has been US government yields and this continued to dictate the USDJPY. The pair could not get above the 100 hour MA at 112.50 yesterday and this level will only continue to fall and cap the market if we can’t get a break, despite the pair unable to break higher, the buyers are still comfortable building bids around 112.00 and the fact that price was unable to trade to the 200 day MA at 111.70 suggests to me that the buyers are still in the pound seats.
Liquidity will start to dry up the closer we get to Thursday and I am cognisant of wanting to be out of the market over that period.
Market Insight Commentary – Forex
In the Zone
- GBPUSD
- OIL
Market Insight Commentary – Indices
Important Economic Data out today
14:30 GBP Autumn Forecast Statement
Consensus: None
Effect: More hawkish than expected is good for the GBP
15:30 USD Core Durable Goods
Consensus: 0.4%
Effect: Actual higher than expected is good for the USD
15:30 USD Unemployment Claims
Consensus: 241K
Effect: Actual lower than expected is good for the USD
17:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
Consensus: -1.4M
Effect: No consistent effect on the USD
21:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Consensus: None
Effect: More hawkish than expected is good for the USD
Noteworthy News
- The resignation of Robert Mugabe was met with celebration in the streets as Zimbabweans around the world rejoiced. Local equities rallied on possible future opportunities, I will be watching this space carefully – it is one thing removing one personality, but another to remove an institution.
