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Market Insight Commentary – 18 January 2018

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  • USDCAD

Market Insight Commentary – Forex

Today's News Headlines

  • Donald Trump was on the wires yesterday, can’t say we have missed him though. He did mention that he may or may not leave NAFTA and also hoped there would not be any trade wars with China.

Market Insight Commentary – Indices

Market Recap

It has been a long time since the markets were as wild as they were yesterday, the dollar seemed to be on the back foot for most of the New York session only for some big reversals late last night. I had remained patient the entire day, waiting for opportunity to knock, but the moves I had been waiting for came at around midnight and so I missed the boat. Most analysts are suggesting that the catalyst for the reversal was the release of the Beige book that showed an expanding economy in the US – my own analysis is that there was nothing in this reading that warranted such a big move.

The USDCAD was the focus of traders everywhere today with the BOC on the agenda, on the release of the hike in interest rates the pair jumped to 1.2540 as the headlines suggested a bullish tone may be in the offering. The pair found some resistance there though as the Loonie was hit by the old “one-two” sucker punch as the press conference reiterated to the market that this hike was a little dovish in nature, coupled with the late dollar strength the USDCAD actually closed flat on the day.

I will be watching the market with some keen interest today, if the move last night was on the back if the Beige book – then there will be a recovery this morning as that data reading is hardly a big trend mover. That means that I will have to be patient again today, the bias is still towards dollar strength but there may be an opportunity for a secondary entry later on during the day.

Important Economic Data Due Today

15:30                                         USD                                             Building Permits

Consensus:                             1.29M

Effect:                                        Actual higher than consensus is good for the USD

 

18:00                                         USD                                             Crude Oil Inventories

Consensus:                             -1.4M

Effect:                                        No real consistent effect on the USD

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