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Market Insight Commentary – 16 July 2018

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Market Insight Commentary – Forex

Today's News Headlines

  • After the much vaunted tax cuts came into effect, the data shows that it has not increased capital spending – this may have an impact on US growth leading into this year.

Market Insight Commentary – Indices

Market Recap

Friday was started with the BOE talking about poor weather being the reason for a softer Q1, this meant that the GBPUSD was a little bit softer too although there was a little bit of a bonus in store later on during the day. With Brexit very much in the spotlight and reports indicating that there is very much a chance of a no deal, President Trump insisted that there would be a trade deal in the offering after Brexit, this led to PM May becoming more assertive on Brexit and this seemed to appease the market.

The EURUSD seemed to be dragged higher by the move in cable and the buying continued into the close. The high was 1.1790 on Monday with a low of 1.1610 – the 100 and 200 hour MA are converging at 1.1695 and this will be the key level to watch today – the question is whether the sellers will be able to keep a lid on the pair later this week.

The Bank of Canada had a more hawkish hike than expected this week, I read this a little differently and was happy to see the market run out of a little bit of momentum. The pair closed between the 100 and 200 hour MA of 1.3150 – 1.3140 on Friday and this means that these key levels will the barometer for this week.

As I indicated in the video, I am not seeing much technical evidence in the FX markets at the moment bar the USDJPY. I continue to seek opportunity in the Indices and in particular the US Equity markets which are trading at all-time highs.

Important Economic Data Due Today

14:30                           USD                              Retail Sales     

Consensus:                   0.4%

Effect:                          Higher than expected is good for the USD

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