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In the Zone
- EURUSD
- GBPUSD
- AUDUSD
- NZDUSD
- USDCAD
- USDJPY
Market Insight Commentary – Forex
Today's News Headlines
- Theresa May lost the vote, as UK lawmakers now have the final say on Brexit. This will affect the negotiations for May in an adverse manner.
Market Insight Commentary – Indices
Market Recap
The market was eagerly waiting the FOMC yesterday, so much in fact that the US CPI data came in a little bit unexpected. The data was a tad softer and as a result the dollar weakened across the board – we were anticipating a “buy the rumour, sell the fact,” and the move off the CPI would have been a good early indicator.
As expected the Fed raised rates, and as “expected,” the dollar weakened somewhat off the back of it. There did not seem to be any optimism around the economy out the Fed, the dot path stays the same and there was surprisingly two dissenters on the committee. The big moves came in the commodity currencies with the NZD and the AUD in particular enjoying some bids, there are numerous reports floating around that banks are recommending a commodity run in 2018 – and this will also help the commodity currencies.
The GBPUSD looks a good pair to trade from a technical viewpoint, it enjoyed the run last night and rather surprisingly shrugged off Theresa Mays negative vote on the final say in Brexit negotiations. This will severely affect her ability at the Brexit negotiation table, if it were not for the MPC meeting today I would be all over this pair – and perhaps this will present some opportunity tomorrow. I am still using any rallies in this pair to look for short.
There seems to be a lot of opportunity this morning, but there is also a lot of event risk in play today – so please check the economic calendar before you take any trade.
Important Economic Data Due Today
10:30 CHF Libor
Consensus: -0.75%
Effect: Actual higher than expected is good for the CHF
10:30 CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
Consensus: None
Effect: More hawkish than expected is good for the CHF
11:30 GBP Retail Sales
Consensus: 0.4%
Effect: Actual higher than expected is good for the GBP
14:00 GBP Official Bank Rate
Consensus: 0.50%
Effect: Actual higher than expected is good for the GBP
14:00 GBP Monetary Policy Statement
Consensus: None
Effect: More hawkish than expected is good for the GBP
14:45 EUR Minimum Bid Rate
Consensus: 0.00%
Effect: Actual higher than expected is good for the EUR
15:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
Consensus: None
Effect: More hawkish than expected is good for the EUR
15:30 USD Retail Sales
Consensus: 0.6%
Effect: Actual higher than expected is good for the USD
19:25 CAD BOC Governor Poloz Speaks
Consensus: None
Effect: More hawkish than expected is good for the CAD
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