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Market Insight Commentary – 09 May 2018

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Market Insight Commentary – Forex

Today's News Headlines

  • The rest of the world reiterated that they would not be pulling out of the Iran deal despite the announcement from Trump last night – we need to see more details of analysis of the repercussions that will follow from this.

Market Insight Commentary – Indices

Market Recap

A day waiting in suspense for news on the Iran nuclear deal ended with what we already knew – although that is not say there was not a little bit of drama to endure. A couple hours before the announcement though, there were leaks that indicated that Trump could delay the decision which sent the oil price crashing, then denials of this meant the oil price bounced again. In the end the inevitable happened when Trump announced they would be pulling out.

Never has a President of the US caused so much volatility in the market, there will be some conspiracy theorists that suggest this happens too often to be a coincidence – and I am starting to wonder myself.

The FX markets are starting to show some nice divergence – although they have been showing divergence for the last 2 weeks. Once would expect to see a relief rally against the dollar at some point, the problem is that it has been showing these signs for some time. The dollar is rampant, and as a result I continue to focus my attention on pairs like the DAX.

Important Economic Data Due Today

14:30                           USD                              PPI

Consensus:                   0.2%

Effect:                          Higher than expected is good for the USD

 

16:30                          USD                              Crude Oil Inventories 

Consensus:                   -0.2M

Effect:                          No Consistent effect on the dollar

 

23:00                           NZD                              RBNZ Cash Rate

Consensus:                   1.75%

Effect:                          Higher than expected is good for the NZD

 

23:00                           NZD                              RBNZ Policy Rate Statement

Consensus:                   None

Effect:                          More hawkish than expected is good for the NZD

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