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Market Insight Commentary – Forex
Today's News Headlines
- The 30 year bond market sunk to the lowest levels this year, this should serve as a warning to the Fed that inflation is not coming and may start to signal rate hikes may not be that urgent.
Market Insight Commentary – Indices
Market Recap
The trade tariffs between the US and China went into effect at midnight on Friday with each party imposing $34B of tariffs on each other’s goods. In what is becoming predictable these days, Trump vowed to add further sanctions, this time though he in not dealing with a flustered EU but rather a calculating China who vowed to match. In theory the US should win this battle as they import more goods, but I suspect that the Chinese will merely make it difficult through delaying clearance of time sensitive agricultural products – this would be strategic as it would target the heartland of the US.
The market was a little bit more concerned about the US employment report which came in slightly stronger than expectation, the real move was on the back of the revision higher but the weak wage figure will no doubt play the party pooper. I don’t believe that it will be enough to alter the Fed but it did create some short term weakness.
There does seem to be some opportunity brewing this week but we will have to wait to see what the theme for the week is. The US is currently tackling the EU, Canada, Mexico and China – Trump seems to be playing a game of chicken in an attempt to negotiation, I am not sure that his tactics will work and if anything it does have the potential to really hurt.
Important Economic Data Due Today
15:00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
Consensus: None
Effect: More hawkish than expected is good for the EUR
17:00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
Consensus: None
Effect: More hawkish than expected is good for the EUR
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