Forex Market Insight 05 October 2018

Market Insight Commentary – 05 October 2018

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In the Zone

  • US30
  • Brent
  • USDJPY

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7

Today's News Headlines

  • Barnier of the Brexit negotiation team suggests that a deal is almost confirmed – I am not sure if this is wishful thinking or not.

Market Recap

There seems to be some concern about the higher bond yields leading into the NFP data today, the fact that this surprised the market is actually surprising to me – you would surmise that something like this could happen after the hawkish tone in Powell’s speech on Wednesday night. This was the catalyst for the stock market to jitter somewhat and these type of narratives is what will continue to drive the USDJPY, the pair fell by about 70 or 80 pips and I continue to seek opportunity in these pairs.

China was back in the headlines yesterday as Mike Pence highlighted exactly all the ways that China take advantage of the US. I am not sure if this is a strategy to get the US completely behind tariffs placed on China, we are never certain how Donald Trump is going to react to this or what further measures he may come up with – but this is definitely a narrative to keep an eye on.

With all these headlines floating around, and with NFP on the docket today – it seems like a good day to stay out the market to me.

Important Economic Data Due Today

14:30                            CAD                              Employment Change   

Consensus:                   25K

Effect:                          Higher than expected is good for the CAD

14:30                            CAD                              Unemployment Rate   

Consensus:                   5.9%

Effect:                          Lower than expected is good for the CAD

14:30                            USD                              Average Hourly Earnings

Consensus:                   0.3%

Effect:                          Higher than expected is good for the USD

14:30                            USD                              Non –Farm Employment Change   

Consensus:                   185K

Effect:                          Higher than expected is good for the USD

14:30                            USD                              Unemployment Rate   

Consensus:                   3.8%

Effect:                          Lower than expected is good for the USD

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