Market Insight Commentary – 21 August 2018

There was nothing on the economic calendar yesterday and other than the opening hour in London, this showed during the course of the day as there were not any major moves elsewhere – we also need to be reminded that this is the Northern Hemisphere summer holidays. The market instead waited for comments by the Feds Bostic which on first account was hawkish by hinting that the Fed was working to get policy back to neutral and that perhaps the economy did not need any more stimulus. He then reverted to dovish comments by suggesting the economy only needed one more hike this year.

Market Insight Commentary – 22 August 2018

Yesterday was an interesting one, the US appeared to back down on auto tariffs at least for the interim – this created a positive sentiment as risk sentiment prevailed and we saw some US dollar selling. There was also a little bit of optimism around Brexit as a press conference between Barnier and Raab pledged further talks and working towards a deal by October or November. This allowed both the EUR and GBP to gain over 100 pips. The majors look a little bit exhausted at this point and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some profit taking over the course of the day.

Market Outlook Commentary – 16 April 2019

There was very little on the economic calendar and so the market continues to be moved by risk created by geopolitical factors. In the UK talks between Labour and the Conservatives continue to progress according to reports, we would prefer to hear official comments before believing anything we hear. In the EU, they are currently drawing up a list of retaliatory tariffs to place on the US which will be released tomorrow morning.

Market Outlook Commentary – 19 June 2019

Yesterday was all about the CCB as Draghi gave the markets to ponder by suggesting that there may be further stimulus out of the single currency as he was a lot more dovish than was expected when he started touting more rate cuts. There is increasing levels of dovishness by Central Banks around the world and it seems as though they are willing to have a race to the bottom.

Market Insight Commentary – 07 June 2018

Despite a very upbeat trade number, the dollar spent most of the day on the back foot, leading into the end of the day it did stage a late rally but the damage had mostly been done. The catalyst was the reversal in stock market and this lead to the volatility in the FX markets.

Market Insight Commentary – 23 July 2018

here was not much on the agenda on Friday with the only economic data out of Canada threatening to create some volatility in the market, and we have all come accustomed to start checking twitter once the US start waking up. There is bound to be some outlandish comments from Donald Trump that moves the market, he didn’t disappoint on Friday as he hinted to the Fed to lower rates and also threatened a much bigger trade war with China.

Market Outlook Commentary – 26 April 2019

It’s hard to believe that its coming up to US election season again as Joe Biden announced his decision to run for the Democratic seat. One would assume that he would be the top Democrat candidate next year – he has challenged before and almost won in 2008 – Trump has changed the face of politics since then and so let’s all hope he is up for a dog fight.

Market Insight Commentary – 27 September 2018

The USDCAD moved on the back of news that the White House will publish the text of a US-Mexico trade agreement. Canada has called the US bluff and this may be an indication that the US will be looking to cut Canada out, in my mind there is a low probability of this happening and perhaps just the US in turn calling Canada’s bluff. The pair did trade at 1.3000 but then the FOMC took over, this will be an interesting pair to watch this week.

Market Insight Commentary – 18 May 2018

The USDJPY did move big yesterday as the US long bonds climbed to 3.25%, this has massive technical significance because these bonds broke through a major triple top in the process. When the pair settled, it sits just beneath a key level at 110.45. The high yesterday traded at 110.90 which is well above the 200 day MA and this will be the key level going forwards.

Market Outlook Commentary – 22 May 2019

The morning session was quite as we have started to see some side themes start to emerge that can possibly take the attention away from China and the US – even if for only a short reprieve. The market will start to turn its attention to both the EU elections as well as Brexit which is fast approaching revised extension date set for June.

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