Market Insight Commentary – 14 December 2018

By recent standards, yesterday was a pretty uneventful day – there was no more drama to come out of the UK parliament and nothing much from the Donald Trump twitter account. The biggest thing to come out of the EU presser with Draghi was confirmation that the QE had ended, despite lowered inflation forecasts for 2019 the balance sheet looks steady and the balance of risk is probably to the downside for now.

Market Insight Commentary – 30 November 2018

The market yesterday seemed to suffer from a post-Powell hangover, in my opinion the Fed was clear as day when they started to suggest that there won’t be as many interest rate hikes next year, in fact to me that is the message the talking heads have given us over the last 3 weeks. It was however a mixed bag as a lot of renowned macroeconomic houses are suggesting that the speech was not in fact an indication to pause as of 2019, sometimes it easy to get caught up in your own view and I hope that this is not the case.

Market Outlook Commentary – 27 May 2019

Friday was dominated by the resignation of PM May which is set for 7 June, although she will stay on in a caretaking capacity until such time as a new prime minster is selected in Mid-July. I am not sure that this changes the Brexit equation just yet as the EU have not shown any indication that they are willing to change their stance much. Trading will centre on the odds of the new leader, the early favourite is Boris Johnson – although British politics has a history of favourites losing at the polls.

Market Insight Commentary – 13 November 2018

With a holiday on both the US and Canada, yesterday was a really quite day on the economic calendar, there was however a lot of negotiating going on. Top of the agenda is the Brexit negotiations, the market was for the most part hoping for the November EU summit to resolve this but this summit now seems off the table. The EU chief negotiator did make some positive comments yesterday but the markets want a resolution to this and it seems as though we are at the mercy of market moving headlines now.

Market Outlook Commentary – 12 March 2019

Yesterday was dominated by Brexit headlines and the pound pairs were strapped in for the ride, the pound was volatile and it enjoyed a bumper day as there is tangible hope that the parliament can take control of the government. PM May will be the catalyst for any cable moves today, yesterday she hinted that the meaningful vote this week would become a provisional vote – this means that she may add some caveats and if passed in parliament, this will be put forward to the EU next week.

Market Outlook Commentary – 08 January 2019

The market is also glued to any news that comes from the US-China trade negotiations in Washington, there is the question on how to solve the IP issue, it’s not all that easy for Trump as the US consumer does have a thirst for cheap goods. On the back of minds will also be the recent Apple story with traders wondering if this is more indicative of the financial market environment at present.

Market Outlook Commentary – 28 March 2019

All eyes were on the Speaker of the House John Bercow in the UK yesterday, he was given around 16 options to select from to put in the ballot, parliament will have to narrow it down as May continues to get a third meaningful vote in play. The DUP are still not prepared to back May completely, they are suggesting that the current deal with the removal of the backstop is what they want, the problem with that is that the EU is not offering that deal – what do they say about wanting your cake and eating it too?

Market Insight Commentary – 23 August 2018

After a relatively quiet week, the market was hoping that the FOMC meeting minutes would spark a little volatility – and with it some trading opportunities. There were not any major surprises, the Fed expect gradual hikes but warned that the GDP growth would probably slow in the second half of the year – all were adamant that trade disputes would place massive downside risk to the US economy. The Fed stated that it would be appropriate in the “not too distant future,” to no longer expect monetary policy as accommodative. This would suggest that the Fed is close to rate neutrality, this does not change the fact that September is nailed on for a hike – but it doesn’t answer the question of what will happen in December.

Market Insight Commentary – 12 October 2018

The forex market was a mixed day today with the AUD and NZD proving to be the big gainers, the USD was the weakest of the majors – it seems as though FX traders are happy to sit back and watch the equity traders sweat for now. Talking about sitting back, which is exactly what I intend to do – I will sit on the side lines again today and come back Monday – hopefully the dust has settled then.

Market Insight Commentary – 17 July 2018

Friday was started with the BOE talking about poor weather being the reason for a softer Q1, this meant that the GBPUSD was a little bit softer too although there was a little bit of a bonus in store later on during the day. With Brexit very much in the spotlight and reports indicating that there is very much a chance of a no deal, President Trump insisted that there would be a trade deal in the offering after Brexit, this led to PM May becoming more assertive on Brexit and this seemed to appease the market.

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