Daily Market Insight

Good data out of the EU allowed for the EURUSD to be really strong for most of the day and the pair found a high of 1.1715. Considering where the daily charts are lying, I would be tempted to buy any dips that may occur. I will employing the same strategy with the GBPUSD, this pair was not as strong as the EUR yesterday and there may be some catch up to play.
Every time he starts to make a little bit of sense, it doesn’t take Trump long to revert back to those ridiculous comments that he posts on his twitter account. On Friday he sent a shock through the markets with threats that he will impose 20% tariffs on autos from the EU if European tariffs on US cars were not removed. On the weekend he insisted that the rest of the world remove tariffs and trade barriers on the US – I am still trying to decide if he is the pot or the kettle.
I understand that the deal put to the table would be blocked by the speaker as it is essentially the same vote that was defeated last week – I’m not sure she would have passed it anyway. There is also some rumours that if the EU don’t grant an extension, then an exit with no deal would very much be on the cards – I doubt this either.
There were rumours that a Brexit deal could be announced in the next 2 or 3 weeks, the UK seem to be keen to get something through whilst the EU are happy to keep everything open ended for now. The Brits seem to have an exit date in mind, and the continuing shifting of the goal post by their European counterparts must surely raise the odds of a no deal scenario – something that was highlighted in that UK Brexit Secretary is taking an increasingly hard line in these negotiations.
The market continues to wait on news out of Washington regarding the trade talks between the US and China. Headlines that the two are drafting multiple memorandum of understanding which covers intellectual property, services, tech transfer, agriculture and currencies. This triggered a risk on environment and emerging markets were a major benefactor.
This also means that Canada will come into the spotlight and it seems optimistic that they will join the deal in short time. The USDCAD fell by around 67 pips, all the way to 1.2958 and finished near the lows of the day. The US will have you believe that the US and Mexico have created the NAFTA conditions and will give Canada a take it or leave it ultimatum – I think that the shoe is on the other foot and that Canada hold all the cards, NAFTA just won’t work without them, and you can’t discount that they could offer Mexico a sweeter deal that excludes the US.
The EURUSD moved to its lowest level since December of last year and that level comes in at 1.1745, the majority of the concern came out of Italy last week with the formation of yet another coalition. The coalition is in favour of lower taxes and higher public spending which is historically a recipe for disaster, the fear of these policies filtered into the EURUSD and for now the sellers look poised to push this pair back towards 1.1713.
We have seen almost all the major pairs fall (more like plunder) to their monthly lows, I want to touch on the Kiwi though as the NZDUSD finished significantly lower than the rest of the majors. It seems as though the Kiwi always leads the commodity block when the mitigating factor is diverging interest rate pairs, and this is what we saw for the most part of yesterday.