Daily Market Insight

Yet another day where the market seemed to be held hostage by the political uncertainty in Italy, there is already talk that there will be another election held in July. The fear is that this just strengthens the anti-EU rhetoric and with both Portugal and Spain having similar grievances, there could be a snowball effect which leaves the EU is a state of tatters.
It was all about the Brexit vote yesterday, there was nothing really for traders to grasp onto during the afternoon session as rumours all but confirmed that PM May would lose her vote. The focus started shifting to the margin of defeat with sources reporting both a 50 vote and 150 vote margin of defeat. The vote was more resounding than that with the rejection of the deal coming in at 432-202 – a resounding defeat for PM May.
The EURUSD struggled to get above the double bottoms at 1.1431 and this inability meant that the pair lost momentum and many buyers turned into sellers. The lower trend line at 1.1375 was broken which pushed the pair to a low of 1.3350, if the buyers are wanting to wrestle back some control then a move towards 1.1400 will be paramount – the bias won’t change though until we trade above 1.1430 again.
Donald Trump has set the markets off in a bit of a tail spin last night by sending off tweets that are damaging towards relations with China. Just as we were under the impression that the trade talks between the US and China were going positively, news broke that aids informed Trump that there were still significant hurdles to get the deal done – Trump replied by promising a 25% increase on Chinese goods by the end of the week.
Yesterday was all about Brexit talks in Parliament yesterday, there were a couple of amendments that needed voting on which would determine the next step – the two most important being the Brady Amendment and the Cooper Amendment. Unfortunately the Conservative Party and the Labour Party are again backing differing amendments – the Cooper Amendment backed by Labour was safety against a “no-deal” but this failed.
I am sure that there will be more to come from this story and rumours that the Chinese were trying to renegotiate something that had already agreed, suggests to me that the US will not budge. The other half of this story is that this does seem to be Trumps negotiating style, and so time will tell – what is for certain is that Trump has brought with his tweets some volatility.
Fresh after the Draghi speech last week – which on the whole was somewhat dovish, it has emerged that the majority of the big players believe that those rates are even too optimistic. As part of the trade deal with the US, China are considering lifting a trade ban on poultry and also buying more pork – on initial release this seemed as though this may be an attempt to get things ticking again on the trade deal. Considering there is currently African Swine Flu in pork this could merely be an attempt to meet their 30% in supply deficit.