Daily Market Insight

Yesterday was all about how much more the dollar would weaken on the back of dovish Fed meeting on Wednesday, a lot of the negativity was priced in and so there was that residual moves. The day ahead was all about the potential trade deal between China and the US but there were not major headlines just yet. Trump did hint that the Chinese were hoping to “meet in the middle” and reach an early trade agreement, he commented that the relationship between the two heavy weight economies have never been so good.
onald Trump continues to make waves in world politics, it started early on Friday when he suggested that Russia should be reinstated as a member of the G7 – making it the G8 again. With the exception of Italy, the other European leaders were not keen on the idea and Japan were non-committal on the notion.
A quiet morning with no headlines to move the market, this meant that risk sentiment was flat for most of the day. The evening news was dominated by Brexit news again, PM May is to build a consortium that would look first to extend the date from April 12 to May 22 and then get a deal done that would translate into a soft Brexit.
The GBPUSD picked up where it left off on Tuesday, the weak inflation report didn’t help the cause as weaker data sent the pair crashing to a low of 1.3000, fighting talk around the Brexit meant that there was as steady recovery from there, but I still wonder if this pair is in for a tough time this week. I am still in the same boat and continue to find day trading strategies in the indices for now – the currency market does look as though it is getting stretched though and I am wondering if that means a slew of opportunity next week.
Theresa May has reiterated over the weekend that if the Parliament rejects the latest deal on the table then the UK would be worse off. I tend to agree with her, often the first deal is your best deal, but it seems that some quarters in Parliament are using this opportunity  to get rid of May which may come back to haunt them. The real risk of a no deal is becoming apparent with Boris Johnson calling for the divorce settlement to be held back, I would think that a hard Brexit would hurt both the UK and the EU. There is a scenario analysis being drawn up at this point which will be released later this week.
The market was a little subdued yesterday, which is what should have been expected given it was a holiday in both the US and Canada. It does seem as though now that a deal between the US and China nears completion, the US will start turning their attention elsewhere and it seems as though the EU are very much in the firing line.
No matter your feelings on Donald Trump, you have to give him credit on the steps he made with North Korea in Singapore, it’s a step forward – and its more than any other US President has ever done. It is unpredictable how this will end but if both parties can remain level headed in negotiations there is no reason that we won’t find a little peace. The market had eagerly anticipated this to occur but it was hardly market moving.
The general theme persists to be the trade worries surrounding the US and everyone else in the world, the retaliation has begun to filter in and I wonder if this is officially the start of a fully-fledged trade war. There really is not much more to add to this scenario as I continue to sit the markets out until something more alluring presents itself. I cover some of the instruments in the morning videos.