Daily Market Insight

Friday was all about developments in Turkey, I would like to say that the Turkish Lira tumbled, but it was more than that – it was absolute carnage. The Turkish Lira shed 16.9% on Friday alone, and 26% over the month – meaning that it has literally collapsed. The contagion effect filtered through to other emerging markets like South African and Brazil. The safe haven currencies like the Swiss Franc, US Dollar and the Yen all benefitted from the developments.
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All eyes are currently on Brexit headlines, and it was another positive comment that the EU are set to offer the UK a bumper trade deal sent the GBP soaring by 100 pips to end the week positive. Monday will be an interesting day, but I suspect that any deal is nowhere near as positive as the headline and there may perhaps be a small retracement in the offing. Markets are tough at the moment with headlines creating unpredictable volatility. I have been focusing my attention on Brent Crude and intraday opportunities in the indices, I don’t see any reason to change my strategy for now.
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NZDUSD SELL                             6820 – 0.6840 NZDCHF SELL                             6870 – 0.6890 AUDCHF SELL                             7320 – 0.7340
The main draw card yesterday was the BOC decision which didn’t cause too much volatility, Governor Poloz kept the October hike on the table and allowed the market to focus once again on the NAFTA agreements. After Trump tweeted on the weekend, you could be mistaken for thinking that this was not the slam dunk it was made to be, but headlines yesterday were cause for optimism with some thinking an agreement could be made as early as today. The biggest mover yesterday was the sterling as a report that Germany and the UK will instead focus on a transition deal and sort out future arrangements after Brexit was seen favourably by the market.
Fundamental headlines continue to drive the market as we await the NFP data read today as well as any form of news flow around NAFTA and Brexit that may filter through. I won’t be trading today, as for me the NFP data read is always a lottery as to how the market react and so I would prefer to trade on Monday again, considering we had such a good week I feel this to be the most conservative route. The USDJPY was rather active yesterday and was mostly sold the entire day, a positive correlation to the equity indices. I think that most of the move would have left the market with a feeling that Chinese tariffs will be announced.
What materialized showed that PM May never get a meaningful vote through, after the carnage in the Labour Party last week – this vote showed the rift in the Conservative Party too as more than 80 members abstained or voted against the government. Labour will push for a second referendum in the coming days.