Daily Market Insight

The US started the day in a rather positive fashion with Donald Trump admitting that he hopes the US and China would be able to find some form of middle ground in their pursuing trade disagreement. Then come the talking heads out of the Fed which changed the course of the day completely when they highlighted a bearish outlook on global growth. This came as a surprise to the market as they effectively interpreted this as a note of caution in the Fed’s hiking path, this triggered a bout of dollar selling, it will be interesting to see the dot path on Monday – the market had priced in a December hike, this could completely change market sentiment and we could see a massive unwind of that position next week.
Surprisingly the markets have been somewhat subdued over the last couple of days, the economic calendar has been active – it may be that the market has become dependent on big news flow of late. There are reports that the Labour Party met with PM May regarding Brexit and we wonder if there will be some form of agreement, given that the EU offered a tempting olive branch on Wednesday evening of a customs union which allows the UK to have a say in trade deals.
Brexit is continuing to throw out some curve balls – yesterday the European Court announced that Britain can unilaterally revoke article 50. It is a long shot, but it means that there is once again a no-Brexit scenario on the table, I would like to say that this cannot happen but that is exactly what we said about the referendum in 2016. Theresa May lost her first vote yesterday in that parliament will have a greater power if Mays vote gets defeated next week. This means that parliament would try and avoid a no deal scenario.
It was a pretty subdued start to the week with most of the market waiting on the FOMC on Wednesday evening, this will create some dollar movements during what is bound to be the final week of trading. In what looks like a little “buy the rumour sell the fact” trading action, the market is bracing itself for a dovish tone.
It is thought that Theresa May and Angela Merkel will meet this morning before the EU summit, Germany are staunch supporters in avoiding a no-deal Brexit and you would think she would try and help Britain. It is rumoured that May will also be meeting Macron, the problem is that she has no real update to deliver as her parliament continue to undermine in her every vote.