Daily Market Insight

With little in the way of data to show some direction, and the market becoming bored of both the Brexit and trade war narrative – the morning was quiet. Instead it chose to focus on the Bank of Canada interest rate decision. The expectation was that rates would be left on pause for now, the market was prepared for a more dovish tone, and instead that tone was louder than that what was anticipated.
The EURUSD still seems sympathetic towards cable and stalled against the 100 hour MA during the London session, it then followed sterling lower when New York came into office. The fall in the pair was helped by PMI data but there were some dip buyers lining up near lower trend support at 1.1375, staying above this level could lead to more profit buying this morning.
Risk sentiment was the key market mover again this morning, with comments out of the US suggesting that a trade deal was imminent lending itself to a risk on environment, the dollar was not able to completely capitalize as comments from Donald Trump that the “dollar was too strong,” keeping it in check. Delayed Brexit dates has also help underpin British assets for now the pound has been by far the best performer of late.
It is always tough to read the markets on the Tuesday after Easter, with most of the global financial centres enjoying a four day weekend – the day is often met with some indecision. This was evident yesterday when the market made some inroads in the morning session but then retraced everything in the afternoon to end the day flat.
Friday was the day after a BIG move in the financial markets and as predicted there was a lot of rallies, Monday will be the real acid test on whether those moves are valid or not. Donald Trump officially announced up to $50B of tariffs on China which will start on July 6th, China immediately retaliated with tariffs up to $50B. The US then took a step back saying that $34B and China responded with the same – trade war on?
PM May and the puzzle called Brexit continues to be the focus in the UK, May did win the trade bill amendment vote yesterday and this narrow victory could have saved her job. There are reports starting to surface that although a no deal on Brexit would be harmful to the UK, it could prove to be far more damaging to the EU. The GBPUSD as a result fell below the 200 and 100 hour MA earlier in the day to 1.3218 before the floor fell out and the pair traded to as low as 1.3060, as long as this pair trades below 1.3100, the bears will be in full control.
The Fed seem very concerned around global economic developments and are willing to adjust balance sheet normalization, there was an adjustment in language as they described local economy as solid rather than strong and they removed “balance of risks” from the statement where previously they believed that they were roughly balanced.
Cable was once again the headliner yesterday as reports surfaced that PM May was working on an Irish border backstop compromise. The headline was a little ambiguous though and at first glance it seemed as though a deal had been reached – this meant that the algos moved the market by over 100 pips. It has spent the rest of the day retracing those moves, it has perhaps given us an insight as to what the market is hoping for once Brexit has concluded – it seems as though the first move will be a bounce.
The currency market will go into a slumber late morning today ahead of the FOMC meeting, the expectations are for the Fed to reiterate a hold decision, the risk for the committee to lower dot plot projections.