Forex Market Insight 07 November 2018

Market Insight Commentary – 07 November 2018

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Today's Market Fundamentals

Markets will be dominated today by the US Mid Term Election results which should start trickling through this morning. The consensus in the polls is that the Republicans will maintain control of the Senate, while the Democrats will take control of the House. Many have asked what the results will means for the US economy.

To make it simple, the political procedure is that any new legislation has to pass through the House and thereafter the Senate decides. If the Democrats are to wrestle power in the House, it will merely slow Trump down somewhat in his push for an “America First” policy. If the Democrats were to surprise and also win the Senate, it would mean that there could be further consequences in that Trump could face impeachment.

What is it that we face today, if the Republicans keep control of both the House and the Senate – then both the dollar and US equities will be strong. If the Democrats win one of the institutions then expect the dollar to weaken today, there will be a risk on environment and so emerging markets currencies could be the benefactor.

In my mind, the UK are still the biggest global risk with Brexit headlines still moving these pairs. There is still the real scenario of no deal and this could create some medium term volatility in the markets, it is clearly being over shadowed by US politics – but tomorrow will see these headlines take centre stage again.

Today's Market Trading Levels

  1. AUDCHF                              SELL                             7260 – 0.7280
  1. AUDCAD                              SELL                           9520 – 0.9560
  1. Brent                                     BUY                               00 – 71.75

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