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In the Zone
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Today's News Headlines
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Market Recap
The overwhelming theme in the market continues to be the Brexit negotiations, will there or won’t there be a Brexit deal in the coming days. There is talk that the DUP are close to agreeing a satisfactory deal with regards to the Northern Ireland border with Ireland – I think everyone can agree that it would unacceptable to have NI on a separate customs arrangement to that of the UK.
There were rumours that a Brexit deal could be announced in the next 2 or 3 weeks, the UK seem to be keen to get something through whilst the EU are happy to keep everything open ended for now. The Brits seem to have an exit date in mind, and the continuing shifting of the goal post by their European counterparts must surely raise the odds of a no deal scenario – something that was highlighted in that UK Brexit Secretary is taking an increasingly hard line in these negotiations.
China have been really keen to improve relationships with the US, they seem genuinely sincere in statements that they in favour of creating a more open global trade environment. It would be beneficial for the world to defend against protectionism, the problem is that the Chinese have gone against their own word before and so it seems as though the US are taking this with a pinch of salt right now.
I do believe that a deal will be struck in the coming weeks, the US are preoccupied on the US midterm elections. If one is to believe the polls, there is a “blue wave” about to sweep through US politics which would mean that the Republicans could lose the house or senate – possibly both. I am little more sceptical as these polls also predicted a land slide victory for the democrats in 2016 and we all see how that unfolded.
There is bound to be some massive volatility of the course of the results so be prepared – my motto is always that if in “doubt – stay out!” and I will live by this for the rest of the week.
Important Economic Data Due Today
16:00 USD CB Consumer Confidence
Consensus: 136.3
Effect: Higher than expected is good for the USD
21:30 CAD BOC Poloz Speaks
Consensus: None
Effect: More hawkish than expected is good for the CAD
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