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Market Insight Commentary – Forex
Today's News Headlines
- News out of Mexico are that NAFTA talks are progressing well, we heard similar comments out of Canada – but that was 3 months ago. The longer it takes to announce an agreement, the more sceptical I get.
Market Insight Commentary – Indices
Market Recap
Today saw the release of the PPI number in the US which came in somewhat softer than what was expected. The CPI which will be released this morning is arguably the more important set of data, but weak data here will surely leave the market confused as to how the US economy can be at full employment with little inflation. The Fed comments last week pointed towards rates being accommodative last week, but the data coming out suggest that the Fed may decide to go restrictive.
The EURUSD fell below its 100 hour MA at 1.1580 yesterday which turned risk back towards bearish sentiment and the pair grinded lower for most of the day. There is a key support level at 1.1506 which is also a double bottom, this will be make or break ending the week as a move lower with mean the lowest trading levels in over a year.
The GBPUSD trade lower for a 6thconsecutive day and is now at its lowest point for 12 months, 1.2825 is a major trend line and staying below here will be bearish for this pair. Despite the bearish trend, you get the impression that there needs to be some form of relief rally for this pair.
There is a lot on the economic calendar to navigate today, you sometimes wish that this would have come on Monday so as to give us some direction this week.
Important Economic Data Due Today
10:30 GBP GDP
Consensus: 0.2%
Effect: Higher than expected is good for the GBP
10:30 GBP Manufacturing Production
Consensus: 0.3%
Effect: Higher than expected is good for the GBP
14:30 CAD Employment Change
Consensus: 17K
Effect: Higher than expected is good for the CAD
14:30 CAD Unemployment Rate
Consensus: 5.9%
Effect: Lower than expected is good for the CAD
14:30 USD CPI
Consensus: 0.2%
Effect: Lower than expected is good for the USD
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