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Market Insight Commentary – Forex
Today's News Headlines
- Donald Trump is set to announce a 25% tariff on $200B of Chinese goods, just when we thought China had offered an olive branch in the trade wars – he goes and does that.
Market Insight Commentary – Indices
Market Recap
For most of the day the market was locked in anticipation for the FOMC decision, we got what was expected in that there was no hike – we did get endorsement of stronger growth and spending. There was a feeling that the market was not overly impressed by what the market had to say. The reason for this is possibly that Trump overshadowed the Fed decision by confirming a proposal to raise taxes from 25% to 10%, and this was announced as the Fed were announcing.
The USDCAD was the interesting pair to watch last night, for the reason that while the US and Mexico have been negotiating the automobile section of NAFTA, Canada have been left out. There is a real feeling that both could leave Canada out and leave them with no deal – I would be careful if I were Mexico, no point having a better deal for automobiles with the US if that results in a worse oil deal with Canada. The loonie did finish the day slightly stronger, this may strengthen slightly more on the back of NAFTA news – could this become a “buy the rumour, sell the news” scenario.
Important Economic Data Due Today
10:30 GBP Construction PMI
Consensus: 52.8
Effect: Higher than expected is good for the GBP
20:00 GBP Official Bank Rate
Consensus: 0.75%
Effect: Higher than expected is good for the GBP
13:30 GBP BOE Carney Speaks
Consensus: None
Effect: More hawkish than expected is good for the GBP
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