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Market Insight Commentary – Forex
Today's News Headlines
- The White House administration again displayed that they are all over the shop, Mnuchin commented that exemption to trade tariffs would be made to Canada – a couple hours later Kudlow reiterated that it was interpreted incorrectly.
Market Insight Commentary – Indices
Market Recap
Despite a very upbeat trade number, the dollar spent most of the day on the back foot, leading into the end of the day it did stage a late rally but the damage had mostly been done. The catalyst was the reversal in stock market and this lead to the volatility in the FX markets.
The EURUSD was a big mover yesterday, most of the move continues to be driven by ECB statements that QE exits will be hotly debated next week, the unwind would obviously strengthen the currency. If this statement was made last week it would hold more weight with me but with developments in Italy, I am not certain this can happen now. The EURUSD was stuck around 1.1770 for most of yesterday with 1.1760 acting as major support for now – I suspect that the range today may be 1.1800 to 1.1760.
The USDCAD continues to be a big mover as NAFTA headlines continue to move this pair, there were overnight reports that stated that Mnuchin is lobbying for removing tariffs with Canada. This led to the USDCAD trading down to 1.2850 last night, 100 pips better than the start of the day. This pair whipsawed up again and will be driven off this fundamental trade news today.
Important Economic Data Due Today
14:30 CAD BOC Poloz Speaks
Consensus: None
Effect: More hawkish than expected is good for the CAD
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