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Market Insight Commentary – Forex
Today's News Headlines
- Mexico don’t believe that there will be a NAFTA agreement this week, there is conflicting reports surfacing that not all parties in the treaty are happy and so this story could linger for some time.
Market Insight Commentary – Indices
Market Recap
The retail sales number become extremely important this week as the Fed have been harping on about inflation breaking ceiling, the wage data did not support this view and so as a major driver for inflation – the market held out for yesterday’s release. The market headlines met expectation and there were small revisions, the dollar immediately started buying the dollar and since the report didn’t blow anyone away – it just shows me that traders are looking for any reason to buy the dollar.
The USDCAD was a bit of a roller coaster yesterday, the pair strengthened by about 50 pips first thing yesterday on rumours that the NAFTA agreement would be signed by Thursday. The pair quickly reversed those gains when these stories were rubbished. This is a clear indication that this pair is trading on pure fundamentals at this time.
The USDJPY rallied again late last night and currently trades at 110.20 which is higher than a big technical level of 110.10. This level represents the 61.8% fib from the last swing high, it represents the 200 day MA and I suspect that sellers are going to lean against this price. Throw in the mix that we have some divergence forming there and this the pair that I will be most closely watching today.
Important Economic Data Due Today
14:30 USD Building Permits
Consensus: 1.35M
Effect: Higher than expected is good for the USD
16:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories
Consensus: -1.1M
Effect: No consistent effect on the USD
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