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Market Insight Commentary – Forex
Today's News Headlines
- News out of Scotland suggests that there is the real possibility of there being no Brexit deal, this would be catastrophic to both the EU and the UK and I suspect that both currencies will come under pressure.
Market Insight Commentary – Indices
Market Recap
The market continued where it left off on Friday, with a slightly weaker dollar – it did not fall out of bed but the question still remains on whether this is just a bout of profit taking or the start of a reversal of trend. The tide started to turn somewhat as the talking heads came online – both the Fed and ECB were slightly dovish, Wilbur Ross talked tough on trade, and there may be a little concern of concern around the retail sales numbers.
The GBPUSD was around unchanged on the day, but it then fell through the bottom late in the NY session, there is some major support in the form of both the 200 hour MA and the 200 day MA trading at 1.3545. This will be a key make or break level for the buyers and sellers today.
I still think of the FX pairs, the USDJPY looks most attractive this morning, it is trading between the 100 and 200 day MA levels this morning. The 200 day MA at 110.10 in particular also offers a key resistance level and I suspect that sellers will be keen to lean against this level this morning. 109.80 is also the 50% fib level from the move down of the November high.
Important Economic Data Due Today
10:30 GBP Average Earnings Index
Consensus: 2.7%
Effect: Higher than expected is good for the GBP
14:30 USD Retail Sales
Consensus: 0.4%
Effect: Higher than expected is good for the USD
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