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Market Insight Commentary – Forex
Today's News Headlines
- Reports surfaced yesterday what we already know – China is more able than the US to weather a trade war. You never know if this will stoke Trump in to more rhetoric though.
Market Insight Commentary – Indices
Market Recap
There were limited moves yesterday in most the FX pairs, as the market eagerly waited for the FOMC statement. There was only a 4% chance of a rate hike, but the market was more interested in the statement that followed.
It was a different story 45 minutes later though when the market decided that this subtle shift was not a big deal and the recent dollar strength returned. The EURUSD and GBPUSD were both traded to low extremes with the cable in particular approaching the 200 day MA at 1.3535 and that will be the target this morning.
The commodity currencies continue to be bounced around and I suspect that this may be the matter all day. Keep an eye out also on the emerging market currencies, with the change in US treasury yields these are the currencies that are most likely to be hit by the dollar.
Important Economic Data Due Today
10:30 GBP Services PMI
Consensus: 53.5
Effect: Higher than expected is good for the GBP
14:30 CAD Trade Balance
Consensus: -2.3B
Effect: Higher than expected is good for the CAD
16:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Consensus: -2.3B
Effect: Higher than expected is good for the USD
18:00 CHF SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks
Consensus: None
Effect: More hawkish than expected is good for the CHF
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