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Dean's Daily FX Update – 08 May 2017
In the Zone
- EURUSD
- GBPUSD
- AUDUSD
- NZDUSD
- USDCAD
- USDJPY
- USDZAR
Noteworthy News
- Comments from the Saudi energy minster that the worst in the oil sector has now past and the sector will start rebalancing should buoy the oil price.
Recap
The polls had predicted a 65% chance of a Macron win over the weekend, much of this had been priced in over the last two weeks, but after the political surprises in 2016 the market decided to wait for the announcement. The EUR crosses all gained some in early morning trading, the EURUSD did open the day at 1.1025 but quickly retraced lower as traders “sold the news.” Also over the weekend come the news that ruling party in Germany won the state elections by a larger than expected result – no doubt a relief for Angela Merkel and the EU.
The economic calendar is light today and so there is not much data to give the market some direction. You would expect the dollar to rally this week, but the dollar has the feel of a retreat mode – there is news filtering in that the US Senate will not pass the Healthcare Act and this will be a major blow for the White House Administration.
Japan was closed for the most part of last week and so I was expecting some nice move in the USDJPY this week, it was rather subdued and the price continues to trade around 112.75. This level has confluence in the form of a descending channel as well as the 61.8% fib and so these levels may be worth watching.
I continue to watch both oil and the USDCAD with keen interest. Comments out of Saudi Arabia should be supportive for the oil price and this in turn should prop the CAD. There were also comments out this weekend from PM Trudeau threatened retaliatory action over the lumber tariffs. The US have tried all these “scare” tactics before on Canada and have ended on the losing side, you get the impression that history could repeat itself here.
If you have not watched the videos’ this morning, I have shifted my trading to the Daily Chart for now. There is a lot of fundamental and geo political factors at play and I think the longer term charts will better absorb the “news”.
Daily Ranges 08/05/2017
Majors
EURUSD
Resistance 1.1000 – 1.1020
Support 1.0930 – 1.0910
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2980 – 1.3020
Support 1.2900 – 1.2880
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7430 – 0.7450
Support 0.7380 – 0.7360
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.6930 – 0.6960
Support 0.6840 – 0.6820
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3710 – 1.3730
Support 1.3640 – 1.3620
USDJPY
Resistance 112.80 – 113.00
Support 112.20 – 112.00
USDCHF
Resistance 0.9900 – 0.9930
Support 0.9870 – 0.9850
Rand
USDZAR
Resistance 13.5500 – 13.6000
Support 13.3550 – 13.3270
EURZAR
Resistance 14.8640 – 14.9040
Support 14.7260 – 14.6800
GBPZAR
Resistance 17.4400 – 17.4900
Support 17.3550 – 17.3250
Minors
AUDCAD
Resistance 1.0180 – 1.0200
Support 1.0120 – 1.0100
AUDJPY
Resistance 83.60 – 83.80
Support 83.00 – 82.70
EURCHF
Resistance 1.0850 – 1.0870
Support 1.0800 – 1.0770
EURGBP
Resistance 0.8490 – 0.8520
Support 0.8420 – 0.8400
EURJPY
Resistance 124.20 – 124.40
Support 123.20 – 123.00
GBPJPY
Resistance 146.20 – 146.50
Support 145.30 – 145.00
GBPCAD
Resistance 1.7810 – 1.7830
Support 1.7690 – 1.7670
GBPCHF
Resistance 1.2800 – 1.2820
Support 1.2740 – 1.2720
Indices
DE30
Resistance 12780 – 12800
Support 12650 – 12600
UK100
Resistance
Support
US500
Resistance 2400 – 2420
Support 2350 – 2340
US30
Resistance 21000 – 21100
Support 20900 – 20870
SA40
Resistance 47700 – 47850
Support 46900 – 46700
Commodities
BRENT
Resistance 49.70 – 49.90
Support 47.70 – 47.50
XAUUSD
Resistance 1230.00 – 1235.00
Support 1220.00 – 1215.00
XAGUSD
Resistance 16.40 – 16.70
Support 16.20 – 16.00
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