It seems as though the volatility from the first quarter spilled into the second quarter of 2017, this week was supposed to be all about the NFP data on Friday and perhaps some headlines from a much anticipated meeting between the US and China. This was all forgotten late on Thursday evening as the end of the week become dominated by the US airstrike on Syria – this in response to a chemical attack on civilians in Syria. This airstrike was a message from President Trump that he will clearly not tolerate such heinous crimes, despite his obvious short comings I have to admit that Trump is definitely a decisive individual.
After a fantastic ADP data reading on Wednesday, the market would have been excused for expecting another show stopping number this time around in the NFP, instead we got a terribly weak number. Expectedly, the dollar started selling off, but this move was fairly limited and the dollar recovered nicely to finish the week in an emphatically strong fashion.
The EURUSD finished the week below the 100 day MA and closed at 1.0580, the 100 day MA trades at 1.0620 and this will be the key level to watch next week. The sellers will want to see price stay below that level leading into Easter weekend, if it does manage to achieve this, then the next key support level will trade at 1.0500.
The USDJPY experienced a lot of turbulence this week, earlier on it traded well below support and looked set to test lower than 110.00. Political developments drove this higher leading into the weekend and price actually traded as high as 111.40, the 200 hour MA trades at 111.10 and this will be the key level for buyer to hold if this pair is to trade higher.
The GBPUSD had a week to forget after encouraging signs at the end of March, this week it closed below the 100 day MA for the first time in almost a month. The key level to watch this week will be the 1.2360, and this is where the market closed and a move lower looks likely to test 1.2300 at least this week. There are still record short positions been held in this pair, I would be cautious trading this pair leading into Easter, any positive headlines could easily trigger another bout of short covering.
The USDCAD continues to be an incredibly tough currency to trade, it seems to pick and choose its days to remain correlated to oil and that is what is making this pair difficult. If I look for the positives, I am encouraged that price found support at 1.3350 and resistance at 1.3450, I will be looking at that resistance level with some intent next week.
Don’t forget that this a shortened week, the exception of the US, on account of Easter. It will be important to keep an eye on the economic calendar before entering positions.
Weekly Ranges 10/04/2017 – 14/04/2017
Majors
EURUSD
Resistance 1.0705 – 1.0720
Support 1.0562 – 1.0550
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2500 – 1.2530
Support 1.2260 – 1.2240
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7610 – 0.7630
Support 0.7490 – 0.7460
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.7005 – 0.7025
Support 0.6930 – 0.6900
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3440 – 1.3460
Support 1.3340 – 1.3310
USDJPY
Resistance 111.50 – 111.70
Support 110.20 – 110.00
USDCHF
Resistance 1.0110 – 1.0130
Support 0.9980 – 0.9960
Rand
USDZAR
Resistance 13.8080 – 13.8440
Support 13.3680 – 13.3250
EURZAR
Resistance 14.6880 – 14.7225
Support 14.3550 – 14.3140
GBPZAR
Resistance 17.1570 – 17.2050
Support 16.6778 – 16.6450
Minors
AUDCAD
Resistance 1.0160 – 1.0180
Support 1.0030 – 1.0010
AUDJPY
Resistance 84.50 – 84.70
Support 83.15 – 83.00
EURCHF
Resistance 1.0720 – 1.0740
Support 1.0680 – 1.0650
EURGBP
Resistance 0.8600 – 0.8620
Support 0.8520 – 0.8500
EURJPY
Resistance 118.90 – 119.10
Support 117.70 – 117.50
GBPJPY
Resistance 138.70 – 138.90
Support 137.30 – 137.10
GBPCAD
Resistance 1.6770 – 1.6800
Support 1.6560 – 1.6530
GBPCHF
Resistance 1.2530 – 1.2550
Support 1.2440 – 1.2420
Indices
DE30
Resistance 12310 – 12340
Support 12160 – 12130
UK100
Resistance 7350 – 7400
Support 7280 – 7250
US500
Resistance 2360 – 2380
Support 2340 – 2310
US30
Resistance 20750 – 20770
Support 20580 – 20550
SA40
Resistance 46800 – 46900
Support 45400 – 45300
Commodities
BRENT
Resistance 55.30 – 55.60
Support 53.30 – 53.00
XAUUSD
Resistance 1262.20 – 1267.50
Support 1244.30 – 1243.10
XAGUSD
Resistance 18.30 – 18.60
Support 17.50 – 17.20
